外文翻译--中国的FDI 国内投资与经济增长：一个时间序列分析

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1、 1 中文 3080 字 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外 文 题 目 ： Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis 出 处： The World Economy, 2008.10,1467-9701. 作 者： Sumei Tang, E. A. Selvanathan and S. Selvanathan. 外文原稿 Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Economic Gro

2、wth in China: A Time Series Analysis Sumei Tang, E. A. Selvanathan and S. Selvanathan 1. Introduction Despite a large amount of literature on the subject, the role of FDI in economic growth remains highly controversial. The proponents of FDI argue that it helps promote economic growth through techno

3、logy diffusion and human capital development. This is particularly the case when MNEs in a host economy have vertical inter-firm linkages with domestic firms or have sub-national or sub-regional clusters of inter-related activities. Through formal and informal links and social contacts among employe

4、es, MNEs diffuse technology and management know-how to indigenous firms. Consequently, economic rents are created accruing to old technologies and traditional management styles. Also, FDI helps overcome capital shortage in host countries and complements domestic investment when FDI flows to high-ris

5、k areas or new industries where domestic investment is limited. When FDI occurs in resource industries, domestic investment in related industries may be stimulated. Moreover, FDI may result in an increased demand for exports from the host country, helping attract investment in the export industries.

6、 Empirical studies supporting these arguments include Sun (1998) and Shan (2002). Using the conventional regression model and panel data, Sun 2 (1998) finds a high and significantly positive correlation between FDI and domestic investment in China. Shan (2002) uses a VAR model to examine the inter-r

7、elationships between FDI,industrial output growth and other variables in China. He concludes that FDI has a significantly beneficial impact on the Chinese economy when the ratio of FDI to industrial output rises. In contrast, opponents of FDI argue that FDI crowds out domestic investment, and has an

8、 adverse effect on growth . In particular, the industrial organisation theory stipulates that FDI is an aggressive global strategy by MNEs to advance monopoly power over and above indigenous firms of the host economy. The ownership-specific advantages of MNEs (e.g.advanced technologies, management k

9、now-how skills, transaction cost minimising and other intangible advantages)could be transformed into monopoly power. This monopoly power can be further reinforced by the other two advantages of MNEs: the market internalisation specific-advantage and the location-specific advantage (Dunning, 1981).

10、In addition, FDI may disrupt backward linkages through substitution of imports for domestic commodities (Noorzoy, 1979). The present paper contributes to the existing literature by applying a multivariate VAR system with the error correction model (ECM) and time series techniques of co-integration a

11、nd innovation accounting to explore the possible links between FDI, domestic investment and economic growth in China. Specifically, we use the impulse response function and variance decomposition plus the Granger causality testing procedures to investigate whether: (1) FDI has a complementary/substi

12、tution effect on domestic investment in China； (2) there exists any causal relationship between FDI, domestic investment and economic growth； (3) FDI has played an important role in Chinas economic growth； and (4) FDI contributes to growth more than domestic investment. This paper differs from earli

13、er studies in a number of respects. Firstly, it represents the first attempt to directly test the relationship between FDI and domestic investment in China. Second, we use pure time-series data while previous studies use either cross-sectional or panel data, which are likely to suffer from problems

14、of data comparability and heterogeneity. Third, earlier studies do not test for causality between FDI, domestic investment and economic growth. The failure to consider the possible two-way causality between the variables may lead to the simultaneity problem. Finally, our VAR model incorporates 3 lon

15、g-run dynamics or ECM. Neglecting these dynamics may produce various estimation biases. The organisation of the paper is as follows. Section 2 offers an overview of FDI inflows, domestic investment and economic growth in China. This is followed by econometric analysis in Section 3. The final section

16、 of the paper presents the conclusion and some policy implications. 2. AN OVERVIEW OF FDI INFLOWS, DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA: 19782003 In the early 1980s, special economic zones were formed with preferential policies including tax concessions and special privileges for foreign

17、 investors. During the reform period, the Chinese government introduced various new legislative measures to improve investment conditions and the business environment in order to attract FDI. Table 1 presents the ratios of FDI to GDP, DI to GDP, and FDI to DI from 1978 to 2003. As can be seen, the p

18、roportions of FDI to GDP (column 2) were quite low and less than 1 per cent until 1990. It increased to a peak value of 6.2 per cent in 1994 and then steadily decreased to 3.8 per cent in 2003. The proportion of DI to GDP was 18.5 per cent in 1978 and increased steadily to 47.6 per cent in 2003. The proportion of FDI to DI increased dramatically from 0.1 per cent in 1978 to 1.7 per cent in 1984, and by 1994 it had reached an all-time high of 18.1 per cent. Since then, it gradually decreased to 8.0 per cent in 2003.