金融学专业外文翻译----预测和管理供应链风险（节选）

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1、PDF外文：http:/ 1  中文 2930 字  Chapter 4: Predicting and Managing SupplyChainRisks   SamirDani  WolfsonSchoolofMechanicalandManufacturing,LoughboroughUniversity,Loughborough,Leicestershire,LE113TU,UK  4.3 RisksintheSupplyChain  Intodaysbusinessworldasupplychainmaybestretche

2、doutacrosstheglobeinordertoprovidethecustomerwiththeproductatthelowestcostandhighestquality.Thesupplychainsarethusexposedtoawholenewsetoffactors,whichcancreatechaosanddisruption.Localpoliticalturmoil,theeverincreasingcomplexityanduncertaintyofweatherconditions,terrorism,counterfeiting,andaplethoraof

3、othersuchissuescreateexternalrisksinthesupplychain.Butthisdoesnotmeanthatthesupplychainisdevoidofanyrisksinternally.Supplierissues,strikes,qualityproblems,andlogisticsissuesaremoreinternaloperationalrisks,whichneedadifferentlevelofmitigation.Zsidisin(2003)suggestedthatriskinasupplychaincontextcanbed

4、efinedasthepotentialoccurrenceofanincidenceassociated with inbound supply in which theresult is the inability of thepurchasingorganizationtomeetcustomerdemand. ChristopherandPeck(2003),takinginspirationfromMason-JonesandTowill(1998),havecategorisedsupplychainriskintofivecategories: 1. Internaltothef

5、irm:Process,Control 2. ExternaltothefirmbutInternaltotheSupplynetwork:Demand,Supply 3. Externaltothenetwork:Environmental Peck(2005,2006)suggeststhatthesourcesanddriversofsupplychainriskoperateatseveraldifferentlevels.Theseareintricatelylinkedaselementsofasystem,andaredescribedwithinfourdiscreteleve

6、lsofanalysis: 1. Level1valuestream/productorprocess. 2. Level2assetsandinfrastructuredependencies. 3. Level3organisationsandinter-organisationalnetworks. 4. Level4theenvironment. Eachlevelreflectsquitedifferentperspectivesbuttogethertheselevelscoverelementsofasupplychainandtheenvironmentwithinwhicht

7、heyareembedded(Peck2005).ThishasalsobeensuggestedbyFaisaletal.(2006)thatrisksourcesare theenvironmental,organizational orsupplychain relatedvariablesthatcannotbepredictedwithcertaintyandthataffectthesupplychain-outcomevariables. SpekmanandDavis(2004)suggesteddimensionsforunderstandingsupplychainrisk

8、sincorporating: 1. Physicalmovementofgoods 2. Flowofinformation 3. Flowofmoney 4. Securityofthefirmsinternalinformationsystems 2 SamirDani  5. Relationshipbetweensupplychainpartners 6. Corporatesocialresponsibilityandtheeffectonafirmsreputation.  ThesedimensionswerealsoresonatedbyCavinato(

9、2004)whenidentifyingrisksanduncertaintiesinsupplychains,focussingonfivesub-chains/networksforeverysupplychain: 1. Physicalnetwork 2. Financialnetwork 3. Informationalnetwork 4. Relationalnetwork 5. Innovationalnetwork  InLaFonde()oneoftherespondentshas mentionedthat“Itreallyisalmostimpossibleto

10、predictwhenmostemergencieswillhappen.Manycompaniesthink,ItcanthappenhereorWewouldneverhavethatprobleminourplant,butthenwhensomethingdoesoccur,theyarecaughtoff-guardandnotprepared”.Theconceptof“resilience”isrelatedtorisk andvulnerabilityinaperspectivethatnotall“risks”(hazardsorthreats)canbeavoided,co

11、ntrolled,oreliminated.Instead,resiliencefocusesontheabilityofthesystemtoreturntoitsoriginalordesiredstateafterbeingdisturbed,e.g.,itsabilitytoabsorbormitigatetheimpactofthedisturbance(Peck2006).    4.4 SupplyChainRiskManagement  Efficientriskmanagementcanprovidevaluetovariousstakehold

12、ersofafirm.Thecompliancewithappropriateproceduresandcorporategovernancepoliciescanhelptoreduceoravoidcrisissituations.Riskmanagemententailsidentifyingoperationalrisksanddevelopingmitigationproceduresformaintainingoperationalperformance.Alongwithconsideringsupplychainriskmanagementfromanoperationalvi

13、ewpoint,itisalsobeneficialtoconsidersupplychainriskmanagementfromastrategicmanagementperspective.Developingtheappropriatecorporategovernancepoliciestotackleissuesofsustainabilityandethicalsourcingleadstoabettercorporatereputationandalsohelpsinriskmanagement.RiceandCaniato(2003)reportthatmanyfirmshav

14、edevelopedvariousriskassessmentprogram-mesthatareintendedto:  4.4.1 Identifydifferenttypesofrisks； 4.4.2 Estimatethelikelihoodofeachtypeofmajordisruptionoccurring； 4.4.3 Assesspotentiallossduetoamajordisruption；and 4.4.4 Identifystrategiestoreducerisk.  Inconsideringtherisksprimarilyinthes

15、upplychain,RiceandCaniato(2003)andZsidisinetal.(2000,2004)suggestedthatasupplychainriskassessmentprogrammemotivatesa firmto developcontingency plans,which thuscan alsobeusedtomeetcertainlegalrequirementssuchastheSarbanes-OxleyActof2002andKonTraG. Researchinthisareahasprimarilyfocussedonthesuppliersi

16、de.SpekmanandDavis (2004) have suggested that interdependency carries risk in the supply chain,butthesecanbemanaged.Zsidisinetal.(2000)andZsidisin(2003)presentsuggestionsforminimisingrisk: Chapter4:PredictingandManagingSupplyChainRisks 3   1. Carryingbufferstockandimprovinginventorymanagement；

17、2. Usingalternativesourcesofsupply； 3. Useofcontractstomanagepricefluctuations；and 4. Qualityinitiatives.  ThesesuggestionsreinforceresearchconductedbySmeltzerandSiferd(1998)whoconcludedthatrisksassociatedwithpoorselectionofsupplierscanbereducedbydevelopingqualitycertificationprogramsandauditin

18、gthesupplierstoassurethattheymeettherequiredstandards.LeeandWhang(2003)developedamodeltoshowhowfirmscanreduceinventoryduetolessinspectiontime.Anotheraspectoftheresearchconductedaroundminimisingsupplierrelatedrisk isconcernedwiththenumberofsuppliers.BothSheffi(2001)andKleindorferandSaad(2005)suggeste

19、dtheuseofmultiple suppliersasawaytoreducecertainsupplychainrisks. Sincethebeginningofthecurrentcentury,companiesareincreasinglyrecogni-singtheimportanceofriskassessmentprogramsandareusingdifferentmethods, rangingfromformalquantitativemodelstoinformalqualitativeplans,toassess supplychainrisks.Someoft

20、heenablersforbettersupplychainriskmanagementincludeLean,SixSigmaandAgilephilosophies(ChristopherandRutherford 2004；ChapellandPeck2005)；EventManagementsoftware(Malykhina2005)；and RadioFrequency Identification(RFID) (Niemeyeret al.2003). Theseprovidebettervisibility,velocityandmoreeffectiveprocesscont

21、rol(ChristopherandLee 2001). AccordingtoNorrmanandJansson(2004),thestagesoftheriskmanagementprocesscanvaryfromriskidentification/analysis(orestimation)viariskassess-ment(orevaluation)todifferentwaysofriskmanagement.Juttneretal.(2003)suggestthat  supplychain  risk  managementis  t

22、he  processof  identifying  andmanagingrisksinthesupplychainthroughaco-ordinatedapproachamongstsupplychainmembersinordertoachievethesupplychainobjectives.Researchershaveconsideredsupplychainriskmanagementfromvariousperspectives(GaudenziandBorghesi2006):financialandcorporategovernancep

23、erspective(Meulbroek2002),perspectiveofbusinesscontinuityandcrisismanagement(Adamsetal.2002),theabilitytoreactquicklytoensurecontinuity(vanHoek2003；Rowbottom2004),reputationmanagementperspective(ORourke2004), perspectiveorientedtowardsthegoalofreliability(Moore2002),andtheachievementofthebesttrade-o

24、ffbetweenqualitycontrols(throughinspections)andprocessself-control(Svensson2002),oftenutilisingtheSixSigmaapproachandtools(Eckes2001). Someotherapproachestosupplychainriskmanagementinvolvemanagingrisksaffecting:specificsupplychainlevels(Cavinato2004),systemsinsideand outsidethechain,suchastheInformationsystem(Finch2004),specificprojects(HalmanandKeizer1994)withanaimtoidentifyandmanagerisksthatthreaten theprojectssuccess(Ramgopal2003)andcausesofprojectfailure(SpekmanandDavis2004).