1、PDF外文：http:/ 1 中文 2930 字 Chapter 4: Predicting and Managing SupplyChainRisks SamirDani WolfsonSchoolofMechanicalandManufacturing,LoughboroughUniversity,Loughborough,Leicestershire,LE113TU,UK 4.3 RisksintheSupplyChain Intodaysbusinessworldasupplychainmaybestretche
2、doutacrosstheglobeinordertoprovidethecustomerwiththeproductatthelowestcostandhighestquality.Thesupplychainsarethusexposedtoawholenewsetoffactors,whichcancreatechaosanddisruption.Localpoliticalturmoil,theeverincreasingcomplexityanduncertaintyofweatherconditions,terrorism,counterfeiting,andaplethoraof
3、othersuchissuescreateexternalrisksinthesupplychain.Butthisdoesnotmeanthatthesupplychainisdevoidofanyrisksinternally.Supplierissues,strikes,qualityproblems,andlogisticsissuesaremoreinternaloperationalrisks,whichneedadifferentlevelofmitigation.Zsidisin(2003)suggestedthatriskinasupplychaincontextcanbed
4、efinedasthepotentialoccurrenceofanincidenceassociated with inbound supply in which theresult is the inability of thepurchasingorganizationtomeetcustomerdemand. ChristopherandPeck(2003),takinginspirationfromMason-JonesandTowill(1998),havecategorisedsupplychainriskintofivecategories: 1. Internaltothef
5、irm:Process,Control 2. ExternaltothefirmbutInternaltotheSupplynetwork:Demand,Supply 3. Externaltothenetwork:Environmental Peck(2005,2006)suggeststhatthesourcesanddriversofsupplychainriskoperateatseveraldifferentlevels.Theseareintricatelylinkedaselementsofasystem,andaredescribedwithinfourdiscreteleve
6、lsofanalysis: 1. Level1valuestream/productorprocess. 2. Level2assetsandinfrastructuredependencies. 3. Level3organisationsandinter-organisationalnetworks. 4. Level4theenvironment. Eachlevelreflectsquitedifferentperspectivesbuttogethertheselevelscoverelementsofasupplychainandtheenvironmentwithinwhicht
7、heyareembedded(Peck2005).ThishasalsobeensuggestedbyFaisaletal.(2006)thatrisksourcesare theenvironmental,organizational orsupplychain relatedvariablesthatcannotbepredictedwithcertaintyandthataffectthesupplychain-outcomevariables. SpekmanandDavis(2004)suggesteddimensionsforunderstandingsupplychainrisk
8、sincorporating: 1. Physicalmovementofgoods 2. Flowofinformation 3. Flowofmoney 4. Securityofthefirmsinternalinformationsystems 2 SamirDani 5. Relationshipbetweensupplychainpartners 6. Corporatesocialresponsibilityandtheeffectonafirmsreputation. ThesedimensionswerealsoresonatedbyCavinato(
9、2004)whenidentifyingrisksanduncertaintiesinsupplychains,focussingonfivesub-chains/networksforeverysupplychain: 1. Physicalnetwork 2. Financialnetwork 3. Informationalnetwork 4. Relationalnetwork 5. Innovationalnetwork InLaFonde()oneoftherespondentshas mentionedthat“Itreallyisalmostimpossibleto
10、predictwhenmostemergencieswillhappen.Manycompaniesthink,ItcanthappenhereorWewouldneverhavethatprobleminourplant,butthenwhensomethingdoesoccur,theyarecaughtoff-guardandnotprepared”.Theconceptof“resilience”isrelatedtorisk andvulnerabilityinaperspectivethatnotall“risks”(hazardsorthreats)canbeavoided,co
11、ntrolled,oreliminated.Instead,resiliencefocusesontheabilityofthesystemtoreturntoitsoriginalordesiredstateafterbeingdisturbed,e.g.,itsabilitytoabsorbormitigatetheimpactofthedisturbance(Peck2006). 4.4 SupplyChainRiskManagement Efficientriskmanagementcanprovidevaluetovariousstakehold
12、ersofafirm.Thecompliancewithappropriateproceduresandcorporategovernancepoliciescanhelptoreduceoravoidcrisissituations.Riskmanagemententailsidentifyingoperationalrisksanddevelopingmitigationproceduresformaintainingoperationalperformance.Alongwithconsideringsupplychainriskmanagementfromanoperationalvi
13、ewpoint,itisalsobeneficialtoconsidersupplychainriskmanagementfromastrategicmanagementperspective.Developingtheappropriatecorporategovernancepoliciestotackleissuesofsustainabilityandethicalsourcingleadstoabettercorporatereputationandalsohelpsinriskmanagement.RiceandCaniato(2003)reportthatmanyfirmshav
14、edevelopedvariousriskassessmentprogram-mesthatareintendedto: 4.4.1 Identifydifferenttypesofrisks； 4.4.2 Estimatethelikelihoodofeachtypeofmajordisruptionoccurring； 4.4.3 Assesspotentiallossduetoamajordisruption；and 4.4.4 Identifystrategiestoreducerisk. Inconsideringtherisksprimarilyinthes
15、upplychain,RiceandCaniato(2003)andZsidisinetal.(2000,2004)suggestedthatasupplychainriskassessmentprogrammemotivatesa firmto developcontingency plans,which thuscan alsobeusedtomeetcertainlegalrequirementssuchastheSarbanes-OxleyActof2002andKonTraG. Researchinthisareahasprimarilyfocussedonthesuppliersi
16、de.SpekmanandDavis (2004) have suggested that interdependency carries risk in the supply chain,butthesecanbemanaged.Zsidisinetal.(2000)andZsidisin(2003)presentsuggestionsforminimisingrisk: Chapter4:PredictingandManagingSupplyChainRisks 3 1. Carryingbufferstockandimprovinginventorymanagement；
17、2. Usingalternativesourcesofsupply； 3. Useofcontractstomanagepricefluctuations；and 4. Qualityinitiatives. ThesesuggestionsreinforceresearchconductedbySmeltzerandSiferd(1998)whoconcludedthatrisksassociatedwithpoorselectionofsupplierscanbereducedbydevelopingqualitycertificationprogramsandauditin
18、gthesupplierstoassurethattheymeettherequiredstandards.LeeandWhang(2003)developedamodeltoshowhowfirmscanreduceinventoryduetolessinspectiontime.Anotheraspectoftheresearchconductedaroundminimisingsupplierrelatedrisk isconcernedwiththenumberofsuppliers.BothSheffi(2001)andKleindorferandSaad(2005)suggeste
19、dtheuseofmultiple suppliersasawaytoreducecertainsupplychainrisks. Sincethebeginningofthecurrentcentury,companiesareincreasinglyrecogni-singtheimportanceofriskassessmentprogramsandareusingdifferentmethods, rangingfromformalquantitativemodelstoinformalqualitativeplans,toassess supplychainrisks.Someoft
20、heenablersforbettersupplychainriskmanagementincludeLean,SixSigmaandAgilephilosophies(ChristopherandRutherford 2004；ChapellandPeck2005)；EventManagementsoftware(Malykhina2005)；and RadioFrequency Identification(RFID) (Niemeyeret al.2003). Theseprovidebettervisibility,velocityandmoreeffectiveprocesscont
21、rol(ChristopherandLee 2001). AccordingtoNorrmanandJansson(2004),thestagesoftheriskmanagementprocesscanvaryfromriskidentification/analysis(orestimation)viariskassess-ment(orevaluation)todifferentwaysofriskmanagement.Juttneretal.(2003)suggestthat supplychain risk managementis t
22、he processof identifying andmanagingrisksinthesupplychainthroughaco-ordinatedapproachamongstsupplychainmembersinordertoachievethesupplychainobjectives.Researchershaveconsideredsupplychainriskmanagementfromvariousperspectives(GaudenziandBorghesi2006):financialandcorporategovernancep
23、erspective(Meulbroek2002),perspectiveofbusinesscontinuityandcrisismanagement(Adamsetal.2002),theabilitytoreactquicklytoensurecontinuity(vanHoek2003；Rowbottom2004),reputationmanagementperspective(ORourke2004), perspectiveorientedtowardsthegoalofreliability(Moore2002),andtheachievementofthebesttrade-o
24、ffbetweenqualitycontrols(throughinspections)andprocessself-control(Svensson2002),oftenutilisingtheSixSigmaapproachandtools(Eckes2001). Someotherapproachestosupplychainriskmanagementinvolvemanagingrisksaffecting:specificsupplychainlevels(Cavinato2004),systemsinsideand outsidethechain,suchastheInformationsystem(Finch2004),specificprojects(HalmanandKeizer1994)withanaimtoidentifyandmanagerisksthatthreaten theprojectssuccess(Ramgopal2003)andcausesofprojectfailure(SpekmanandDavis2004).
