金融学外文翻译------加工贸易与经济增长：基于中国的实证分析

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1、 1 本科毕业论文外文原文 外文题目： Processing Trade and Economic Growth:Evidence from China 出 处： The 2nd International Conference on Vale Engineering and Vale Management 作 者： Xi-jun Wang Abstract： Presently, processing trade has become Chinas major trade method In order to make clear the relationship between proce

2、ssing trade and Chinas economic growth, this paper,based on Chinas statistical data from 1985 to 2007， by employing co-integration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model(ECM)， respectively investigates the relationship between processing trade import, processing trade export and e

3、conomic growth The empirical result denotes that there exists unilateral Granger causality relationship between processing trade import and economic growth Processing trade import influences the growth of GDP. For a short period, processing trade import and processing trade export both spur the grow

4、th of GDP, but the impact is comparatively low； for a long period, processing trade import remarkably promotes the growth of GDP, while processing trade export restricts the growth of GDP 1. Introduction Since the reform and open poficy, Chinas foreign trade has been developing rapidly. At preseng f

5、oreign trade， investment and consumption have been“ the three carriages” driving the growth of Chinas economy. On the basis of developing the general trade， our country actively implements the policy of encouraging the development of processing trade so as to make it realize the breakthrough develop

6、ment Presently,processing trade has become Chinas major trade method， playing an extremely important role in impulsing the adjustment and perfection of the industry structure， spurring the improvement of the processing technique and the increasing the opportunity of labor employment Thereby how to m

7、easure processing trades contribution to Chinas economic growth from an objective perspective becomes a very important problem Since the position of the processing trade in developed countries is not remarkable， thus abroad there are few researches on the 2 relationship between processing trade and

8、national economy Since reform and opening，processing trade has been increasing swiftly in our country, and there is much research on processing trade at home The empirical analysis of Liu Zhi-zhong and Wang Yao-zhong(2003)shows that the degree of processing trades contribution to economic growth and

9、 its impulse to economic growth are rather low； the empirical result of Yah Guo-qing and Chen Li-jing(2005)demonstrates that whenever Chinas processing trade increases by 1 percent, GDP will increase by 0.761 percent， and the degree of processing trades contribution equals 53 percent ； Sun Chu-ren ，

10、 Shen Yu-liang and Zhao Hong-jun(2006)calculates the total contribution of processing trade import and other trade import to economic growth is negative； Zhu Qi-rong(2007)， by employing linear regression approach， draws the conclusion that the increase of cornmon trade import and export and the proc

11、essing trade export both impulse the increase of GDP,while the increase of processing trade import will cause negative growth of GDP； Yang Song-li and Yu Hai-shan(2006)make an empirical analysis of processing trades effect on Zhejiangs economic growth by comprehensively employing processing trade va

12、lue-added factor,the promoting degree of processing trade to Zhejiangs GDP and other analyzing method such as linear regression. Obviously,the internal academic community holds different beliefs about the relationship between processing trade and economic growth； meanwhile， these research literature

13、s do not illustrate the long-run and short-run equilibrium relationship between processing trade and economic growth and the impact mechanism Therefore， this paper will analyze the relationship between processing trade and economic growth by employing methods of co-integration theory, Granger causal

14、ity test and error correction model(ECM)，etc 2. Methodology The purpose of empirical analysis in this paper is to test the relationship between processing trade and economic growth by means of co-integration technique Co-integration technique is a new one which is applied to dynamic modelsenactment,

15、estimation and verification It mainly analyzes the nonstationarity of time series， build nonstationary variable economic model， and explore the long-term equilibrium relationship between nonstationary variables Firstly, the paper has the stationary test of time variable series；secondly, the paper te

16、sts the co-integration relationship between the variables； thirdly, the 3 paper builds error correction model,which call not only examine the long-term relationship between variables， but also examine the short-term cause and effect relationship； finally, the paper make a further test and analysis o

17、f cause and effect relationship between time variable series involved in co-integration relationship 2.1. Stationary Test The time-series data of many economic indicators do not have the feature of stable process For the time-series data formed in nonstationary process， traditional mathematical stat

18、istics and econometrics methods seem powerless Besides using sequential autocorrelation analytic chart,modem econometrics judges the stationarity of time series by a more formal approach, that is， to have statistical tests Unit root test is one of the statistical tests which is universally applied T

19、his approach judges the stationarity of a certain time series through judging whether it has roots of unity. Commonly used hypothesis testing approaches include DF test, ADF test and PP test This paper,by employing ADF test, gives a stationarity test of time series ADF test is achieved by Dickey and

20、 Fuller who improved DF test to ensure the characteristic of leuco-noise of random interference item Model expressions of ADF test go as follows: (1) (2) (3) Where， t is time variable， which stands for a certain trend that time series vary as time goes by Null hypothesis , alternative hypothesis . T

21、he text begins with Expression(1) ， then Expression(2) ， and at last with Expression(3) Whenever the test rcjects null hypothesis， that is the original series does not include unit roots, working as stationary series， the test is finished Otherwise， it is to be continued until Expression(1) has been tested. When none of the test results of the three models can reject null hypothesis， it is believed that the time series is stationary 2.2. Co-Integration Test In the domain of economy,previous modeling echnique has hypothesis of dynamic