中国房地产市场：中期校正和长期增长【外文翻译】

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1、中文 4092 字 外 文 翻 译 原文 ： Chinas Real Estate Market： Mid-Term Correction and Long-Term Growth Along with Chinas economic slowdown and policy tightening, the real estate market has been experiencing a mid-term correction since late 2007. This round of property sector downturn is cyclical rather than sec

2、ular and will last from two to two and a half years (September 2007early 2010). From a longer-term perspective, the factors for sustainable growth of the housing market remain sound. These include relatively strong economic growth, positive demographic trends, urbanization, and upgrades in living st

3、andards. Along with the credit crunch and global economic recession in the United States, China s gross domestic product (GDP) growth started to slow down in the second half of 2007 with the real estate market experiencing a mid-term correction since late 2007. Understanding the development and curr

4、ent state of this sector is important in answering questions regarding the pace of China s overall growth and the likely government policies in the coming years. Chinas Real Estate Market Development The real estate market began to take form after China s Constitution was changed to permit transfer

5、of state-owned land-use rights in 1988. Since the housing market reform from 1998 to 1999, commodity housing has come to China s property market, replacing and mainstreaming state-provided housing. Being market-oriented, private developers built mainly commodity housing, selling to a middle- to high

6、-income group. The private sector s incentive in the development of low-end housing is low due to lower profitability, lack of competition, and payment of a penalty for being lean and efficient. Therefore, government needs to take the initiative in the development of housing for the low- to middlein

7、come group which would be considered as “ quasi-public goods.” Real estate has become a political football, kicked in different directions by competing interest groups. Regulators find themselves in multiple positions, enjoying revenues from land sales and property taxes, but are under great pressur

8、e to cool off the market when it is overheating and to revive the market when it is falling sharply. The current real estate market downturn started with a policy tightening in late 2007. In the first half of 2007, China s GDP growth reached a fiveyear record high of 12.1 percent, with investment an

9、d lending expected to accelerate. Along with the global energy and commodity bubbles,inflation was increasing rapidly, and complaints about rising housing prices and declining affordability became widespread. The American subprime crisis left a profound warning about the danger of a housing bubble a

10、nd its subsequent correction. It was against this backdrop that the government had to gradually tighten macroeconomic policies and the property sector was singled out in the overall macro tightening. The most important component of China s macroeconomic tightening policy package launched in late 200

11、7 was the austere measures imposed on the property sector. These can be summarized as: (1) tightening land policy to prevent land hoarding and improve efficiency of land use； (2) tightening mortgage policy to reduce speculative investments； (3) tightening lending standards to reduce developer levera

12、ge； (4) increasing the supply of smaller and cheaper housing units to lower the average prices of residential properties. Another macroeconomic factor was the influence of wealth originating from the stock market. This may have contributed to rising property prices, but it also contributed to the su

13、cceeding downside bust. The Shanghai A-share composite index went up by 473 percent between January 2006 and October 2007, then subsequently fell by more than 60 percent. The driving forces of the sharp correction in the stock market include: (1) interest rate hikes, as well as other credit and inve

14、stment tightening measures, reducing liquidity coming into the stock market； (2) the negative external outlook； (3) the prospect of a surging supply of shares produced by the unfreezing of nontradable shares and new share issuance. The property sector had been hit hard. Consequently, real estate inv

15、estment year-to-date (YTD) growth slowed substantially from 33.5 percent to 22.7 percent year-to-year in the period from January to November 2008, and in the low single digits in the period from July to November 2008. It has triggered diminishing demand for key construction materials, such as steel,

16、 cement, and aluminum, and housing-related consumer durable goods. The slowdown in production of key materials has been exacerbated by a sudden collapse in commodity prices. This was caused by the global financial crisis in general, and by deleveraging in particular, which had intensified since Sept

17、ember 2008, leading to a massive destocking of raw material inputs.A substantial economic slowdown was under way by the second half of 2008. Three factors caused the rather sharp slowdown, including (in order of importance): (1) cooling down in real estate investment； (2) massive destocking of raw m

18、aterial inputs； (3) slowdown in external demand. In our view, weakening external demand is not the primary reason for the sharp deterioration because deceleration in exports has been taking place gradually since mid-2007. It would have been an “ imported soft landing” in action had there not been th

19、e heavy-handed tightening measures against the property sector. The policy-induced decline in real estate investment growth gives rise to risks of a “ domestic-made hard landing.” Against this backdrop, the authorities made a drastic change in policy orientation in the fourth quarter of 2008 by impl

20、ementing expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, as well as rolling back a majority of the austere measures imposed on the property sector. On November 9, 2008, the State Council announced a RMB4 trillion fiscal stimulus package with RMB900 billion to be invested in social welfare housing. Meanwhile, the People s Bank of China announced four consecutive interest rate cuts in the prior three months. The real mortgage rate went as low as 4.28 percent, the lowest in the past five years.