外文翻译-----物流金融的风险评估和早期预警系统

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1、 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外 文 题 目 ： Risk Assessment and Early Warning System for Logistics Finance 出 处： 2008 年国际会议论文集 IEEE 服务运作，物流及信息 作 者： Xiao MeiDan, Li Ye, Liu Bin 原文 ： Risk Assessment and Early Warning System for Logistics Finance Abstract-Logistics finance is an innovative financial solution which combines g

2、oods flow with funds flow, with diverse benefits that appeal to buyers, sellers, logistics enterprises and commercial banks. For example, Commercial banks can widen service ranges and enlarge the loans with lower risks and small and medium-sized enterprises can obtain working capital and speed up th

3、eir development. Logistics finance has attracted great attention in both academia and in business recently, but the logistics finance has developed in china for only several years and its related mechanisms are still immature, and its participation subjects are diversified, the risk exists in the op

4、eration of logistics finance. Therefore, it is very necessary to present quantitative risk analysis to perform on logistics finance. Keywords-logistics finance, early warning system 1. INTRODUCTION Logistics finance is the integration of physical flow and financial flow, with diverse benefits by foc

5、using on servicing the different needs for logistics enterprises, commercial banks, small and medium-sized enterprises, and insurance companies. Which improves the finance situations through solving the difficulty in financing for small and mediumsized enterprises and in providing loans for commerci

6、al banks, and bringing the great opportunities for the development of logistics industry in china. Therefore, logistics finance has attracted great attention in both academia and in business recently, the logistics finance has developed in china for only several years and its related mechanisms are

7、still immature, and its participation subjects are diversified, the risk exists in the operation of logistics finance. In china, existing literatures mainly research on the operation risk of trade business and the establishing risk indexes system of logistics finance； it is lacked to the quantitativ

8、e risk analysis to perform on logistics finance. The problem at present or next stage is to study on risk management of logistics finance in china. For this reasons, we derive the risk assessment and early warning system for logistics finance basing on the comprehensive evaluation of unascertained t

9、heory and fuzzy method. 2. THE MAIN CRITERIA AND TGEIR HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE According to the existing research results and Chinese actual situation, this paper selected the following five categories of criteria (BI-BS) as crucial for evaluating the risk for logistics finance in china, These five f

10、actors are further divided into 16 concrete and detailed criteria (ClCl6) as follows: Credit risk of the customer corporation (Bl): Subjects related to the credit status and business scale of customer corporation which would influence on the repayment. This criterion is divided into: (Cl)Professiona

11、l ability of customer enterprise；(C2)Credit rating of customer enterprise. The collateral risk(B2): Terms related to the factors of collateral as they affect the stability of the logistics finance. This criterion includes five factors:(C3)Ownership risk of pledge commodities；(C4) Supervision risk of

12、 pledge commodities；(CS) Fluctuation risk of market price of collateral；(C6) Liquidation venture of collateral；(C7) Whether buying insurance for pledge commodities. Technical risk(B3): Terms related to advanced technique of logistics enterprises. This criterion is explained by three factors, includi

13、ng:(C8)Conditions for establishing evaluation system of collateral value；(C9)Assessment technique of collateral value；(ClO)Operation technique for collateral. Informatization risk(B4): Subjects related to informatization degree as they influence on information flow. This criterion is divided into:(C

14、ll) Management technique of information system；(CI2) Investment on information. External environment risk(BS): Subjects related to the strategic aspects of macro and micro environment which would affect the stability of logistics finance. This criterion includes four factors:(C13) Macroeconomic poli

15、cy；(CI4)Prospect of industry of logistics finance；(CIS)Condition for market change；(C1 6) Legal environment for logistics finance in china. 3. METHODO LOGICA L ISSUES According to the meaning of risk, risk R is expressed by the function by combining the occurrence probability of risk event( P) with

16、the consequences caused by risk event( C). And the occurrence probability of risk event( P) and the consequences caused by risk event( C) are determined by unascertained theory and fuzzy method respectively, finally the total risk would be calculated by synthetic function of value P and value C. Aft

17、er referencing to other literatures, risk grade can be classified into three grades. Usually, risk value above 0.7 shows risk grade is higher, when risk value lies between 0.3- 0.7illustrates risk grade is medium, and risk value below 0.3 shows risk grade is lower51. The risk value of the logistics

18、finance in this example is 0.6032 which belongs to 0.3 to 0.7, therefore, the logistics finance risk is medium, but is close to 0.7,requiring commercial banks and logistics enterprise to pay attention to prevent and control risk momentarily. Next, we analyze the risk value of five criteria and put f

19、orward the preventive measures on risk of logistics finance. Firstly, the risk value of the Credit risk of the customer corporation(B1) is 0.6167 which is close to 0.7, illustrating that the risks of the professional ability of customer enterprise(C1) and the credit rating of customer enterprise(C2) are relatively high,logistics enterprise should strengthen the credit and capability audit and supervision of customer enterprises. When commercial bank or logisticsenterprise choose the coporators, they should avoid those companies which have weak