1、4800 英文单词， 26500 英文字符 ,中文 8200 字 文献出处： Bakhshi P , Touran A . An Overview of Budget Contingency Calculation Methods in Construction IndustryJ. Procedia Engineering, 2014, 85:52-60. An overview ofbudget contingency calculation methods in construction industry PayamBakhshi， AliTouran Abstract Due to r
2、isks and uncertainties associated with construction projects, owner agencies usually add a reserve amount to the estimated project cost. This reserve amount, known as contingency, is to absorb the monetary impact of the risks/uncertainties and to prevent cost overrun. Over the past two decades, many
3、 contingency calculation methods for construction projects have been introduced by practitioners and researchers. These methods can be ranged from simply considering a percentage of the project base cost to complex mathematical methods. Each of these methods suggests an approach for calculating cont
4、ingency using different assumptions. The question is which one of these methods should be applied to a certain project at a specific phase. Knowing the advantages and disadvantages of each method can help practitioners in construction industry select the best method based upon their project characte
5、ristics, budget, and time. This paper compiles almost all contingency calculations methods and divides them into three main categories of: (1) deterministic methods, (2) probabilistic methods, and (3) modem mathematical methods. Each of these categories are then divided into more subcategories and d
6、iscussed in detail. Keywords: Contingency; Budget; Risk; Deterministic; Probabilistic; Monte Carlo Simulation. 1. Introduction Owners usually need to have an accurate early cost estimate for their projects in order to provide sufficient budget for projects. Risks and uncertainties associated with a project are impediments to reach an accurate cost estimate. For instance, nearly 50% of the large active transportation projects in the United States overran their initial budgets 30. To overcome
