1、文献出处： Onafowora O. Exchange rate and trade balance in East Asia: is there a J-curveJ. Economics bulletin, 2003, 5(18): 1-13. 毕 业 设 计（论 文） 外 文 参 考 资 料 及 译 文 译文题目： 汇率和东亚贸易平衡：存在 J 曲线效应 吗？ Exchange rate and trade balance in east Asia: is there a Jcurve? 学生姓名： 张秋晨 学 号： 专 业： 金融学 所在学院： 指导教师： 吴敏 职 称： 讲师 年 月
2、 日 Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a Jcurve? OLUGBENGA ONAFOWORA SUSQUEHANNA UNIVERSITY Abstract This paper examines the short run and long run effects of real exchange rate changes on the real trade balance of three ASEAN countries in their bilateral trade to the US and Japan
3、 within a cointegrating vector error correction model (VECM). Generalized impulse response funtions are estimated to investigate the response to shocks. VECM estimates suggest one longrun steadystate cointegrating relationship among real trade balance, real exchange rate, real domestic and foreign i
4、ncome in each country. Although considerable variations exist in the results, overall the generalized impulse response functions suggest that the MarshallLerner condition holds in the longrun with varying degree of Jcurve effects in the shortrun. 1. Introduction Many empirical analyses, both multi-c
5、ountry panel regressions and econometric models applied to individual countries, have been conducted into how exchange rate changes affect the trade balance of developing and developed countries 1. Despite the plethora of theoretical and empirical research into how exchange rate changes affect trade balance, there is still considerable disagreement concerning the relationships between these economic variables and the effectiveness of currency devaluation as a tool for increasing a countrys balance of trade. Consequently, the effect of exchange rate changes on tra
