1、 中文 3185 字， 1915 单词， 10170 英文字符 出处： Pearson M. Value chain management: an illustration using variability mapping and decision frontier analysisJ. 2013. 毕 业 设 计（论 文） 外 文 参 考 资 料 及 译 文 译文题目： 价值链管理：一个使用变异映射与决策前沿 分 析的案例 学生姓名： 学 号： 专 业： 会计学 所在学院： 商学院 指导教师： 职 称： 2013 年 12 月 27 日 VALUE CHAIN MANAGEMENT: AN
2、 ILLUSTRATION USING VARIABILITY MAPPING AND DECISION FRONTIER ANALYSIS Michael Pearson ABSTRACT We address uncertainty and confusion in value chain management through the use of recently developed phase plane and decision frontier analysis. The new methodology enables the distinction between the con
3、cept of local, self-inflicted, uncertainty and the concept of global, state of the world, uncertainty through phase plane mapping. We utilise the solution to a set of stochastic differential equations to encapsulate attitudes to uncertainty, opportunity and risk. One source of information on and tar
4、gets for variability is through the method of dynamic acquisition which assists in generating expert forecasts. The forecast errors can be monitored to provide an innovative facility for mapping changes in variability which should enhance research and understanding of the mechanisms occurring in val
5、ue chains. The method also addresses the need for improved network relationships as well as supporting enhanced agility. Keywords Value Chain; Uncertainty Mapping; Risk and Opportunity; Phase Plane and Decision Frontier Analysis 1 INTRODUCTION Work in the Value Chain Forum has led to customer demand being defined in terms of performance, contract cost, through life cost and timeliness (McGuffog et al., 1999; McGuffog, 2011) while highlighting the need to encapsulate attitudes to uncertainty such as seeing opportunity or risk. Faisal et al. (2006) map supply chains on t
