1、 I 摘摘 要要 今年年初之际，关于人民币升值的猜测，再一次风生水起。两年来，几乎 每一次美元下跌，都会引发人民币汇率升值的强烈呼声。这不难理解，美元贬 值，与美元挂钩的人民币自然更加值钱，更愿意被投资者持有。持有强势货币 是金融市场再普通不过的选择。美元日益疲软，而人民币越来越强势，国际上 出现了一股强大的压人民币汇率升值的势力。 面对人民币汇率升值的压力，的确是一个两难的选择，人民币汇率升值可 使我国在吸引外资、偿还外债及购买国外商品时获得一些好处，但人民币汇率 升值会使我国出口商品的相对价格提高而抑制出口。因此，我国政府在一定的 国际压力下到底能否采取升值举措，根本上取决于国内经济发展的
2、需要、进出 口结构状况以及对国际市场商品、货币供求关系的综合判断。 人民币汇率升值是把“双刃剑”，它对我国经济的发展有利又有瞥，本文 主要分析了影响人民币汇率升值的因素以及人民币汇率升值对我国经济的正面 影响和负面影响，并预测了 2006 年人民币汇率的走势。 人民币汇率的升值和贬值在不同的历史时期各有侧重，不是一成不变的， 是随着我国经济形势的变化而变化的。不能笼统地认为人民币汇率升值一定比 贬值好或坏，要具体问题具体分析，因时而异。 关键词关键词 人民币汇率 升值 原因 经济 影响 II AbstractAbstract At t he beginning of t his year ,
3、once again people pr esume t hat t he RMB r ate of exchange will appr eciate. In t he past t wo year s, alm ost every USD declines will cause the strong noise of shouting of RMB rate of exchange appreciation. This is not difficult to comprehend that with t he USD depr eciation, t he Chinese m oney t
4、 hat ar e links with USD is m ore worth m oney, and of cour se ar e m ore willing t o be held by t he investors. H olding a str ong currency is a common choice in t he financial m arket. USD is increasingly weak, but RMB is m ore and m ore pr e-eminent. The international m arket appears an influence
5、 which pr esses RMB r ate of exchange appreciation strongly. Facing the pressure of the appreciation of RMB rate of exchange, it is r eally hard t o decide t hat whether we should increase t he r ate of RMB. The appr eciation of t he RMB r ate of exchange can m ake our country acquire some advantage
6、s while drawing on foreign capital and compensating foreign loan and purchasing foreign merchandise, but at t he sam e t ime, t he r elevant price of export will increase and it will r estrict t he export of our pr oducts. Therefore, under t he certain international pr essure, whether our government can r aise t he r ate of exchange is decided by comprehensive judgment of t he economic development condition, t he import and export structure, t he international m arket m erchandise and
