1、 毕毕 业业 设设 计计 论论 文文 题目：基于 GIS 的滑坡灾害事故 预测系统研究 I 摘摘 要要 滑坡是组成山坡的部分岩土在一定的地质条件下以及在环境因素不断的变化 和作用下，以重力为主、沿向外缓倾的带或面产生向临空作整体或几大块向下、 向前的移动现象。 滑坡的发生给国家和人民带来了巨大的灾难， 随着 3S 技术的飞 速发展，RS、GIS 被广泛应用于滑坡危险性区划和预测研究。特别是 GIS 技术， 由于其储存图层的多层次性、挖掘和计算地质数据的快捷性以及空间形态模拟的 超强能力，为滑坡灾害事故的预测提供了新的思路和方法。 本文以滑坡为对象研究在 GIS 基础上的滑坡灾害事故预测系统，首
2、先建立滑 坡数据库， 再根据滑坡的特点提出了多种滑坡空间预测和时间预测的模型和方法， 针对不同的情况将这些模型和方法进行对比，择出最优模型方法和数据结合起来 以便能够直观的显示和输出滑坡预测预报结果，达到对滑坡灾害准确预测预报。 关键词：滑坡，地理信息系统 ，空间预测，时间预测 II Abstract Landslide is part of the geotechnical slope in certain geological conditions and environment factors in the constant change and effect, give priorit
3、y to gravity, along with the soft-hard interbedding or surfaces deforming toward as a whole or large pieces of moving forward and downward phenomenon. The landslide happened to the country and brought the big disaster, with 3 S technology rapid development, RS, GIS are widely used in landslide risk
4、division and prediction research. Especially the GIS technology, because its storage layers of the hierarchy, the mining and more calculated the promptness of geological data and space form of simulation super ability, for landslide disaster accident prediction provides new train of thought and meth
5、od. In this paper for the object in GIS landslide research on the basis of landslide disaster accident forecast system, we established the landslide database first, then according to the characteristics of the landslide put forward a variety of landslide forecast and the forecast of space time model
6、 and method, in view of the different situation will be the model and method is compared, and choose the optimal model method and data together to be able to display and intuitive output the landslide forecast results, to predict the landslide disaster forecast lastly. Keywords: landslide, GIS, space prediction, time prediction III 目目 录录 1 1 绪绪 论论 1 1 1.1 研究意义 . 1 1.2 研究目的 . 3 1.3 国内外的研究综述 . 3 1.4 研究范围与技术路线 . 5 2 2 开发工具概述开发工具概述 6 6 2.1 ArcEngine 概述 . 6 2.1.1 ArcEngine 介绍
