1、 毕 业 论 文毕 业 论 文 题 目 人民币汇率的决定与影响 二一二年五月 2 人民币汇率的决定与影响 摘 要 该文旨在探讨人民币汇率的决定及影响因素.全文共分三个部分： 第一部分是对于人民币 汇率决定理论的研究;第二部分是对影响人民币汇率的长期因素的分析;第三部分分析现行人 民币汇率制度 第一部分 对购买力平价理论、利率平价理论、国际收支理论、资产市场法的分析。这 一部分重点是对于购买力平价理论及其在我国的适用性的分析。 第二部分 分析了决定我国人民币汇率长期走势的三大主要因素：长期的物价总水平变 动、实际汇率的变动与美元汇率的长期走势。前两个因素的决定性作用是我国的 GDP 增长。 美元
2、长期走势则取决于美国经济的可持续发展。从近期看，我国经济呈现稳步发展，同期美 国经济并未出现新一轮的高速发展，人民币长期汇率具有升值的压力 第三部分 现行的汇率制度下，人民币汇率制度的优缺点以及对进出口贸易与经济增长 方式的影响 关键词：人民币 ，购买力平价 ，汇率制度 3 The influences of RMB exchange rate Abstract This paper aims to explore the RMB exchange rate decision and influence factors. The thesis consists of three parts:
3、the first part is about RMB exchange rate determination theory research; the second part is on the impact of RMB exchange rate in the long term factors analysis; third part of the analysis of current RMB exchange rate system. The first part of the application of the theory of purchasing power parity
4、, the interest rate parity theory, theory of balance of payments, asset market analysis.This part focuses on the purchasing power parity theory and its applicability in China analysis. The second part analyzes the decision of Chinas RMB exchange rate trend of the three main factors: the long-term pr
5、ice total level changes, the change of real exchange rate and exchange rate of US dollar long-term trend. The first two factors decisive action is Chinas GDP growth. Dollar long-term trend depends on the United States economy sustainable development. Look from the near future, our country economy pr
6、esents the steady development period, the United States economy did not occur in a new round of high speed develops, the RMB exchange rate appreciation pressure The third part of the current exchange rate system of RMB exchange rate system, the advantages and disadvantages of the import and export trade and the mode of economic growth. Key Words：RMB;purchasing power parity; exchange rate system 4 目 录 摘 要 Abstract 第一章 引言4 1.1 选题背景及研究意义.4 1.2 文献综述.5 第二章 人民币汇率决定理论8 2.1 购买力平价理论介绍.8
