1、 摘 要 目前，随着金融结构的多元化发展，产生了大量金融衍生行业，民 间借贷就是其中一只很有潜能的生力军， 而担保则是民间借贷的重要组 成部分。近年来，大大小小的担保公司不断兴起，从公司的管理模式， 经营方式， 风险控制等方面存在严重的问题， 阻碍担保的健康稳定发展。 最主要的还是在担保公司民间借贷活动中存在的信用风险， 成为担保公 司发展最大阻碍。 2009 年席卷全球的金融危机正在迅速地向实体经济蔓延，这使本 就处在“融资难”中的中小企业更加“雪上加霜” 。担保公司，这种作 为信用中介的机构，在当前中小企业融资链条中所起的作用更加凸显。 可是，金融危机所造成的企业运营风险的增加，对民营的担
2、保公司不仅 呈现出同步递增的效应，而且，其自身的风险也在放大。在此背景下， 如何使民营担保公司既能够实现资金的杠杆效应， 为中小企业融资提供 便利通道，又能够降低和分散自身的风险，是一个急需探讨的课题。 信用风险是民营担保公司所面临的最大最主要的风险， 而信用风险 也是最难把握和控制的风险， 因此如何对信用风险进行管理是目前民营 担保公司最当务之急所要解决的。本文运用信用风险评级指标体系和 Z 评分模型对民营担保公司的信用风险进行度量和管理， 并用中都担保有 限公司的申保客户为实例，对其进行分析，充分说明信用风险评级指标 体系和 Z 评分模型对风险的管理的重要性和有效性。 同时也对杭州中都 担
3、保有限公司自身的信用风险进行评级， 从公司自身去避免和控制可能 出现的信用风险。 关键词：担保； 信用风险； 信用评级； Z 评分模型 Abstract Currently, a myriad of financial derivative industry have mushroomed along with the diversification of the financial architecture. Private lending becomes a potential main force with guarantee as the key part. Recently, wit
4、h the booming of Guarantee Corporations, there exist the serious problems in terms of management mode, operating mode and risk control, which impede the stable and healthy development. The credit risk of guaranteeing the private lending has been the major block of the development of guarantee corpor
5、ations. The prevailing financial crisis in 2009, having been sweeping the worldwide economic entities, deteriorates the status quo of the small and middle enterprises which have already blocked in the hardship of financing. Guarantee corporation, as the credit middleman, plays a more important role
6、in the financing chain of the small and middle enterprises. The increase of the operating risk caused by financial crisis, however, results in the simultaneously increased effect in the guarantee corporation for private companies as well as the enhanced risk. It is of priority for private guarantee corporations to regulate the credit risk, since, as the biggest risk that private guarantee companies have confronted, credit risk is most difficult to control and manage. This paper, applying to th
