1、Risk-sensitive decision support system for tunnel construction Comprehensive and realistic tunneling plans must strive for optimal decisions that minimize time and cost while addressing important factors such as geologic uncertainty and variability,uncertainty in tunneling productivity , and the con
2、tractors risk sensitivity . This paper presents a computerized decision support system that incorporates all important tunneling risks. It consists of three interrelated models: the probabilistic geologic prediction model , the probabilistic tunnel cost estimating model , and the risk-sensitive dyna
3、mic decision model. The probabilistic geologic prediction model uses all available geologic information to characterize geologic uncertainty and variability along the tunnel profile in the probabilistic from of ground class transitions. The probabilistic tunnel cost estimating model evaluates tunnel
4、ing time and cost performances for applying different excavation and support methods to different prevailing ground conditions by using Monte Carlo simulation to actual tunneling operations . 概 率隧道成本估算模型评估隧穿时间和成本， 表现为在利用蒙特卡罗模拟实际施工操作下， 把 不同的开挖和支护方法应用到不同的地面条件。Both models provide the main input for the risk-sensitive dynamic decision model, the core of the system, to determine the optimal excavation and support sequence and the corresponding risk-adjusted tunneling costs for the project as fun
