1、 摘 要 本文 第一章 给出了 黑龙江省粮食生产状况 ， 粮食产量预测的背景和意义 。第二章 给出了多元线性回归的理论主体：包括多元线性回归模型的标准形式，多元线性回归模型的参数估计，模型的检验和预测原理 。 第三章应用多元线性回归模型对黑龙江省粮食产量进行预测，分析并确定影响粮食产量的主要因素，建立多元线性回归方程，收集并整理相关数据，应用 Eviews6.0 软件对多元线性线性回归方程进行参数估计，分别对模型进行拟合程度检验、 t 检验、 f 检验，并对自变量进行多重共线性检验，使用逐步回归方法剔除部分自变量，降低自变 量间的多重共线性， 确定最优回归方程，并应用模型进行粮食产量的预测。
2、第四章对预测结果及各主要影响因素进行分析解读，最后对黑龙江粮食生产安全提出建议。 关键词： 多元回归 ； 多重共线性 ； 逐步回归； 粮食产量 ；预测 Abstract The first chapter of this paper gives the situation of grain production in Heilongjiang Province,and the background and significance of the foodstuff yield prediction.The second chapter gives the multiple linear reg
3、ression theory, including the standard form of multiple linear regression model,estimation of multiple linear regression model,the method of model test and prediction theory. The third chapter use the multivariate linear regression model to predict the grain yield in Heilongjiang Province. Research
4、and analysis of the main factor that affects grain production,and the establishment of multiple linear regression equation,subsequently collected related data,the application of Eviews software on multiple linear regression equations to estimate the parameters,using the degree of fitting test, t tes
5、t, F test to detect model,the independent variables were multiple colinearity test,the use of stepwise regression method to eliminate some variables,reduce one of Multicollinearity,determination of the optimal regression equation,then apply the model to the forecast of grain yield. The fourth chapter puts forward suggestions on grain production in Heilongjiang Province. Keywords:multiple regression, multicollinearity, stepwise regression, grain yield, forecast
