1、 中文 3795 字 ， 2170 单词， 11400 英文字符 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目： Foreign direct investment and exports 出 处： Economics of Transition 作 者： Nguyen Thanh Xuan and Yuqing Xing Foreign direct investment and exports The experiences of Vietnam Nguyen Thanh Xuan* and Yuqing Xing Abstract We examined the implementation stat
2、uses of a total of 5,919 foreign direct investment (FDI) projects approved by the Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment since 1988, and compiled a database of actually disbursed FDI in Vietnam. The database covers FDI flows into Vietnam from 23 countries from 1990 to 2004. Using the data, w
3、e analyzed the impact of FDI on the exports of Vietnam with gravity equations. The empirical results demonstrate that FDI is one of the major factors driving the rapid export growth of Vietnam. It has significantly facilitated the expansion of Vietnams exports to FDI source countries. In particular,
4、 the empirical analysis shows that a 1 percent increase in FDI inflows will be expected to give rise to a 0.13 percent increase in Vietnams exports to these countries. Keywords: FDI, exports, gravity, Vietnam. 1. Introduction As the largest and fastest growing economy in Indochina, Vietnam has been
5、very successful in attracting FDI and has experienced rapid growth in exports. The experience of Vietnam in the past two decades offers an interesting case for analyzing the causal relationship between FDI and exports. Does FDI in transitional economies promote their exports? Could transitional econ
6、omies become export platforms for multinational companies? The analysis on the experience of Vietnam will enhance our understanding on the role of FDI in promoting the exports of transitional economies and the effectiveness of FDI as a means of achieving export- oriented industrialization. Specifica
7、lly, we will use the gravity model to analyze to what extent FDI contributed to the exports of Vietnam. For conducting such research, it is essential to have reliable FDI data. All officially published FDI data by the Vietnamese government, however, are based on approved projects, which may not be i
8、mplemented for various reasons. Some studies have found that the actual implementation rate of approved projects has been very low. For instance, Kokko and Zejan (1996) showed that only 14 30 percent of registered FDI had been implemented； Fujita (2005) also mentioned that, from 1988 to 1998 only 17
9、 percent of the approved projects from Singapore had been implemented. To rigorously examine the causality between FDI and exports in the context of Vietnam, it is imperative to have actually disbursed FDI rather than approved FDI. To estimate actually disbursed FDI, we investigated 5,919 projects a
10、pproved by the Ministry of Planning and Investment since 1988 and checked the implementation statuses of these projects, then constructed a dataset of actually disbursed FDI. The dataset consists of actually disbursed FDI into Vietnam from 23 countries during the period of 1990 2004. The dataset is
11、an additional contribution of this paper to the literature on the Vietnamese economy. Our empirical analysis is based on the dataset. The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 gives a brief review on FDI and exports in Vietnam. It discusses major policy issues and presents stylized f
12、acts on FDI and exports. Section 3 reviews the major literature on FDI export nexus and gravity models. Section 4 specifies the augmented gravity model employed in the paper and analyzes the results of the estimations. Finally, Section 5 summarizes the major findings of the paper and policy implicat
13、ions. 2. FDI and exports in Vietnam Since 1990, the country has observed a huge influx of FDI. The officially registered FDI inflows rose more than 30 times from US$189.7 million to their peak of US$5.6 billion in 1996. The actually disbursed FDI also grew rapidly, rising from US$277.6 million to US
14、$3.9 billion in 1995. Because of the Asian financial crisis, FDI inflows fell substantially in the following years until 1999. In 2000, both the officially registered and actually disbursed FDI started to rise again. The actually disbursed FDI in that year exceeded the US$1 billion mark again, and a
15、mounted to US$1.2 billion. Four sectors (oil and heavy industry, light industry, agriculture and fishery) together contribute all of the exports of Vietnam. Table 2 outlines the exports and FDI distribution over these four sectors from 1990 to 2004. By 2004, light industry became the number one expo
16、rting sector. It accounted for 41 percent of the total exports, 15 percentage points higher than in 1990. During the same period, FDI flowing into the sector also rose substantially. It surged from US$11 million in 1990 to its peak level US$540 million in 1996. The share of FDI in light industry inc
17、reased from merely 4 percent in 1990 to 28 percent in 2004, making it the second largest sector with cumulative FDI of US$3.1 billion. Oil and heavy industry attracted the largest amount of FDI among the four sectors. From 1990 to 2004, FDI in the sector amounted to US$10.5 billion. In 1990, about 6
18、0 percent of FDI flowing into Vietnam was invested in the sector. In 2004, even though the share of FDI in the sector decreased compared with previous years, almost half of FDI in Vietnam flowed into the sector. Meanwhile, the exports of oil and heavy industry jumped from US$617 million in 1990 to U
19、S$8.6 billion in 2004, making it the second largest exporting sector after light industry. 3. Literature review The academic research on the relationship between FDI and trade initially focused on whether these two flows are complements or substitutes. Using the standard HeckscherOhlin, Mundell (195
20、7) showed that capital movement could be a perfect substitute for trade. Vernons product cycle model also suggested a substitutional relationship between FDI and trade (Vernon, 1966). Dunning (1977) used firm organization theory to discuss whether MNEs should serve a foreign market through exports o
21、r local production. Exports and FDI are fundamentally substitutes in his framework. However, Markusen (1983) argued that factor movements could give rise to trade, if it was based not on relative factor difference but on external economies of scale and different production technologies. Gravity mode
22、ls have been applied in various empirical researches on trade. In addition to GDP and distance, Anderson and van Wincoop (2001) incorporated dispersion indexes, which include the price levels of the exporting and importing countries, relative distance and several other dummies (such as sharing a bor
23、derline, having a common language and belonging to the same free trade zone) into the conventional gravity model, improving the performance of the gravity equation substantially. McCallum (1995) used a gravity model to analyze inter-state trade flows between USA and Canada, and found significant bor
24、der effects. Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) developed a new estimation method to correct the bias of the gravity model due to omitted variables and re-estimated the border effect on the bilateral trade between Canada and USA. Portes and Rey (1999) applied gravity equations in studying cross-border
25、equity flows. Eichengreen, Rhee and Tong (2004) employed a gravity model to examine trade relations between China and other Asian countries. 4. An augmented gravity model for exports and FDI Due to the limitations of the data, we are unable to distinguish whether the growth of the exports is due to the direct or indirect effect of FDI. The following empirical
