1、中文 2620 字， 1286 单词 外文翻译 原文 Is there a macroeconomic impact on the profitability of the company Material Source:Academy of Economic Studies Author:Bucharest Abstract This paper aims at identifying a potential impact of the macroeconomic environment on the profitability of the companies listed on the
2、Bucharest Stock Exchange. This research derives from the most recent literature on the macroeconomic determination of the capital structure of companies located into emerging countries. Indeed, as for these corporations, there has been agreed on the risk transfer between sovereign and corporate spre
3、ads, but every emerging country incurs a particular approach and generalization tends to decay. Therefore, the research focuses on highlighting out the macro determination of the corporate profitability； there will be developed a complex perspective, following up the mixture between idiosyncratic an
4、d systemic approach. Introduction Global economy triggered corporate sector internalization. Companies became more and more integrated into a borderless world, designing and implementing strategies in order to reduce costs through economy of scale and outsourcing Meanwhile, corporations are more and
5、 more exposed to disequilibriums originating from the international environment. Macroeconomic volatility impacts them more consistently, especially from the perspective of their creditworthiness and profitability. Economic cycle is closely related to corporate profitability. During boom periods, pr
6、ofitability potential increases while recession brings it down. An economic downturn triggers the probability to not be able to generate enough cash-flow in order to cover the financial obligations. During the last decade, analysts agreed on the fact that corporate default does not imply only an idi
7、osyncratic side, but also a systemic one, resulting from the correlation of the company with the macroeconomic environment. This paper aims at highlighting out the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the profitability of the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, broken down by sec
8、tor. There have been selected three variables closely linked to the macroeconomic volatility ?current account deficit, economic growth, exchange rate fluctuation- that have been integrated into an OLS regression grouping also indicators reflecting the financial soundness of the company. The conclusi
9、ons regarding the potential impact of the macro side on the profitability tend to differ according to the corporate sector, some being more impacted than the others. Trend of profitability Recently there has been developed a consistent literature on the macro determination of the corporate default s
10、ee Mc Neil, Frey and Embrachts, 2005. Links between micro and macro variables closely related to corporate default have been pointed out. Alves 2005 and Shahnazarian and Asberg-Sommer 2007 found cointegration relationships between the macro and Moody s KMV expected default frequency EDF variables. S
11、hort term interests, GDP and inflation are closely linked to EDF. Similar approaches have been developed by Aspachs, Goodhart, Tsomocos and Zicchino 2006 as well as by Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner 2006. These perspectives subscribe to an impact derived from the macro environment to the corporate s
12、egment, while Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner 2006 revealed that this relationship can be modeled also under the form of an impact deriving from the corporate to the macro side. They found out that corporate default probability as well as equity values impact GDP variables. Castren et al. 2007 includ
13、ed domestic output, inflation, nominal interest rate and real exchange rate as endogenous variables into a VAR model while aggregated default frequency and foreign macro variables were incorporated as exogenous variables. They concluded that default frequency and macro indicators have a similar tren
14、d. This paper follows up the rationale of Jacobson et al. 2005 who conceived macro variables as corporate default regressors using the logit methodology. What it differentiates this approach is precisely the fact that there will be developed an OLS regression at the level of the corporate profitabil
15、ity which is conceived as the key element of the corporate financial soundness. There have been selected three variables closely linked to the macroeconomic volatility ?current account deficit, economic growth, exchange rate fluctuation- that have been integrated into an OLS regression grouping also
16、 indicators reflecting the financial soundness of the company. The research aims at revealing to what extent profitability is triggered by variables at the firm level and by variables related to the macro environment. The conclusions regarding the potential impact of the macro side on the profitabil
17、ity tend to differ according to the corporate sector, some being more impacted than the others. Macroeconomic factors In order to reveal the macroeconomic impact on corporate profitability, there has been performed a regression integrating profitability reflected into the net margin as endogenous va
18、riable and a series of financial ratios related to liquidity, size and solvency as exogenous variables. Regressors included also macroeconomic variables ?current account deficit, exchange rate volatility and real economic growth. Database integrated financial information related to the companies lis
19、ted on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, broken down by sector. The industries analysis focused on were represented by materials, finished goods producers, fertilizer producers, energy and pharmaceuticals. The period financial information was related to was represented by the interval 1997-2007. In a fi
20、rst stage, regression included only firms related variables, linked to the idiosyncratic side of the corporate profitability Secondly, regression was enlarged by the macro related indicators. The key element originates from the way statistic output evolved from one regression to another, especially
21、from the perspective of the macro indicators impact Statistic output points out that profitability is impacted to a high extent by solvency, liquidity and size indicators. Material and chemical industry profitability is correlated negatively with liquidity while the other industries seem to be posit
22、ively correlated. This conclusion is quite interesting. A good liquidity indicator impacts in a positive way profitability. Profit creates good opportunities in order to bring liquidity into the company, but it does not necessarily imply liquidities in the realistic sense which is in line with the c
23、ase of material and chemical industries Size is correlated positively with profitability while solvency and indebtedness indicators are correlated in most of the cases negatively. Enlarging the regressions by the macro variables creates a clear opportunity for the R-squared and adjusted R-squared to
24、 increase. In all the cases, R-squared and Adjusted R-squared increase at least by 10%. The most significant change is recorded in the case of the pharmaceutical industry R-squared increases from 0.55 to 0.78. Profitability is highly impacted by the macroeconomic indicators at the level of 4 out of
25、the 5 industries. The only industry which is not impacted by macro environment is represented by the finished goods industry. Its profitability is impacted only at the firm level. Current account deficit impacts negatively profitability at the level of the material, fertilizers producers and pharmac
26、eutical industries while chemical and energetic industries are impacted positively. This impact is explained by the correlation of the industry with the final consumption. Energetic and chemicals are strongly linked to the usual consumption supported by a high current account deficit while the other
27、 industries are not linked to the same extent. Pharmaceuticals and materials do not imply goods related to usual consumption which has been recently reflected into a growing current account deficit. Real economic growth impacts in a positive manner the profitability at the level of all the industrie
28、s, confirming the assumption that a prosperous macro environment creates incentives to corporate profitability. Exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the evolution of the corporate profitability only in the case of the pharmaceutical industry. This finding is in line with the assumption
29、that pharmaceuticals concentrate its activity mainly on imports which implies a high sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations Overall, macro related variables determine to a high extent corporate profitability. In order to provide an accurate assessment of the corporate profitability, it is necessary for the analysts to consider also the macro environment the company activates in. The conclusions of this paper must be interpreted within the context of the limitations imposed by the database dimension. Future research will keen on integrating into the research other macro related indicators
