1、 1 中文 3324 字 1073 单词 原文 Increase in Commodity Prices and Its Impacting on Gender Material Source: Gender and trade Author: Parthapratim Pal International commodity prices are on a major upswing since the last few years. IMF index of crude oil prices (base 2005=100) increased from a value of around 3
2、6 in January 2002 to more than 230 in May 2008. Non-fuel price index (which include food and industrial input price indices) and the Food and Beverages price index have also increased quite significantly over the same period (Figure 1). What is notable from the figure is that the current increase ha
3、s come after a period of low and sometimes declining international commodity prices. Closer inspection of international commodity prices data reveal that the current commodity price boom has been broad based as prices of three major commodity groupsmetals, foods, and agricultural raw materialshave b
4、een jointly booming since early 2005. A recent IMF study indicates that the current boom is likely to be sustained. It says: “In sum, the comparison of the current commodity price boom with earlier ones suggests that the current boom has been more broad-based and longer lasting and that prices have
5、risen by more than usual.” (IMF 2008, pp 9)2. A number of factors have contributed to this increase in commodity prices. The increase in fuel prices has been triggered by large increases in demand for fuel from both developed and developing countries. Apart from that, there are usual suspicions that
6、 issues like OPEC not increasing oil production, speculation with oil prices and some countries hoarding oil, may be having an upward pressure on oil prices. Increase in fuel prices has led to an increased demand for alternative fuels and as a result, over the past few years, there has been a signif
7、icant increase in bio-fuel production in the world. According to figures quoted by the World Bank, global Ethanol production has increased from about 4,500 million Gallons in 2000 to 2 around 13,500 million gallons in 2007. Increase in bio-fuel production has eaten into food-grains production in som
8、e countries. Coupled with this, poor weather in a number of major food exporters like Australia and Ukraine has led to a production shortfall of food3. As there has been increased demand for food from high growth in a number of developing countries, a major supply demand mismatch has happened in the
9、 international market. To make matters more complicated, commodities have emerged as a new form of speculative asset. Over the past few years, the US financial markets are not performing well. Weakening US dollar, a falling rate of interest and a declining real estate market have made commodities at
10、tractive speculative assets. Confluence of these real and speculative factors has led to the unprecedented increased in commodity prices that we are observing nowadays. This increase in food and commodity prices can have significant implications for the international economy. There will be certain b
11、eneficiaries from this increase in commodity prices. For example, World Bank projections indicate that at a regional level, the Middle East and North Africa and, to a somewhat lesser extent, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America may emerge as the main beneficiaries of the current commodity price boom
12、. However, due to increase in food and fuel prices, inflation is up in many countries and the external balances of most net commodity importers have deteriorated. These developments are affecting the net food importing developing countries very badly. Even within the countries which are expected to
13、benefit, the poorer segment of the society or the net food buyers are likely to suffer from such rising food prices. On balance, poverty is expected to rise in the poorer countries. A recent paper, which attempted to find out the impact of food price rise on poverty, show that the short-run impacts
14、of higher staple food prices on poverty may differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The 3 authors conclude that the recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income
15、countries substantially5. World Bank estimate suggests that a doubling of food prices over the last three years could potentially push 100 million people in low-income countries deeper into poverty. Here it is notable that the 2006 edition of the Annual publication of FAO called State of Food Insecu
16、rity in the World shows that for the years 2001-2003, there were more than 854 million undernourished people in developing countries. This figure is approximately about 17 percent of the total population of the developing countries. The geographical distribution of undernourished people across the w
17、orld is shown in Figure 2. The World Bank estimates probably indicate that 100 million more people will be added to this 850 million undernourished people. The World Food Program estimates are even more serious. It projects that 130 million people will be pushed to poverty because of the increase in
18、 food prices6. It is also suggested that the increase in food prices will be catastrophic for food and nutrition level of the poor. According to estimates by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), poor people spend around 75 percent of their income on food products and a 50 percent in
19、creases in all food prices across the board (holding income constant) will result in a 30 percent decline in iron intake； this, in turn, will result in a significant increase in the prevalence rate of iron deficiency among women and children7. The real impact is likely to be more severe, as there ha
20、s been a near doubling of food prices over the past one year. One worrying fact is that the increase in food prices is likely to hit hard the women and children among the poor. In developing countries across the world, the price rise means that less real income to be spent on food. As a result, fami
21、lies are cutting meals and substituting less nutritious foods. For example, they are substituting more expensive foods such as meat, fruit and vegetables by basic staples such as rice or maize A nutritionist for WFP, Thorne-Lyman says that his has serious implications for child development as withou
22、t sufficient vitamins and minerals, children are at greater risk of disease and stunted growth8. The move towards inferior food is also expected to negatively affect the nutrition level available to young mothers and pregnant women in these countries. Also, the price crunch means that less purchasing power will be available to fulfill health, education and other non-food requirements of these people. It is only likely that the rise in food prices.
