1、中文 1882 字 The Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in China Harry G. Broadman and Xiaolun Sun Labour cost. Foreign investors generally aim to take advantage of host countries cheaper factor inputs (relative to their home countries), and the cost of labour is often considered important in this r
2、egard. In other words, foreign investors display sensitivity to inter-country variations in labour costs in making their location decisions. However, the sensitivity of FDI location decisions to intra-country labour cost differentials is unlikely to be as pronounced. Indeed, even though the decision
3、 to invest in China is no doubt heavily influenced by the countrys prevailing low wage rate, once the choice is made to locate an investment in China, finding the cheapest possible labour within China may not be an important consideration as wage differentials may not be significant. In fact, it is
4、likely to be the case that observed wage rates(including bonuses and in- kind benefits) do not vary as much between regions within China as within other countries because of Chinas legacy of central planning, which has tended to homogenize wage rates. Thus, while the provinces with higher labour cos
5、ts can be expected to compete less favourably in their efforts to attract foreign investment, our expectation is that this variable is not likely to yield a strong negative relationship with provincial FDI accumulation. The measure of labour cost we use is the average annual provincial wage to staff
6、 and worker in 1992. Human capital. A host regions labour supply influences foreign investors location decisions not only in terms of input costs, but also through the quality of the skills of the labour force especially if the price mechanism is repressed, as is the case in Chinas labour markets. A
7、ll other things being equal, locales with highly skilled workers most easily measured by education levels would be expected to compete more favourably than others in their FDI attractiveness. In this study, adult illiteracy is taken to represent the extent of basic education of a provinces workers.
8、The data are taken from Chinas Fourth National Population Census in1990, where the population is classified as illiterate and semi-illiterate. These two classifications are divided by provincial population up to age 6 and over age 6 to obtain an illiteracy ratio. Infrastructure. There is no dispute
9、that the extent of an areas infrastructure development is important in an investors location choice. Infrastructure, of course, covers many dimensions, ranging from highways to railroads to telecommunication systems to even institutional development (e.g., extensiveness of business-related services
10、such as accounting, legal services, etc.). Owing to the difficulty of capturing all these various dimensions in an easily calculable variable, for this study we settled on using as a measure of a provinces infrastructure development the total length of transportation routes within the province, calc
11、ulated as the sum of the length of the (i) railways in operation, (ii) the navigable inland waterways and (iii) the constructed highways in 1992, normalize by provincial geographical size. In effect, this variable measures provincial transportation route density. It is expected to be positively rela
12、ted to the level of FDI stock. Geographical location. As in other countries, another factor that is likely to be an important determinant of the geographical distribution of FDI in China is whether a province has a coastal location and thus is in close proximity to major shipping ports. In China, co
13、astal location may also be important because of the governments FDI policy regime namely that fiscal incentives for foreign investors, such as lower income tax rates and reduced tariffs for imports used in the production of exports, have been heavily slanted in favour of cities along the coast. Alth
14、ough, as the empirical literature shows (as noted above), such incentives only marginally affect FDI decisions in other countries, it would be helpful to assess their effects in the Chinese context. But this is impossible in our case given the unavailability of data on the other explanatory variable
15、s: SEZs (or other similar tax preference units) are not jurisdictions on which GNP, illiteracy, labour costs and infrastructure development are measured； hence our unit of analysis is the province. We thus use a dummy variable to reflect coastal location； for this variable the twelve coastal provinc
16、es take on the value 1, while others are 0. This variable is expected to be positively related to a provinces FDI accumulation. All the reported coefficient estimates in Model II bear the expected sign and are statistically significant at the 10 per cent or above confidence level (except the interce
17、pt). More than 80 per cent of the variation in provincial FDI stocks in China can be explained linearly by the variations in the four independent variables. For a cross-section analysis such as this one, an adjusted R-square of 82 per cent is considered high. The total GNP level is one of the most i
18、mportant factors in foreign investors location choice in China. The coefficient estimate for this variable results in the highest statistical significance among our explanatory variables. A one per cent increase in the market size of a host province brings about nearly one percentage point more FDI
19、into the region. This outcome is consistent with previous cross-country studies on FDI destination. The results also confirm our expectation that FDI in China goes to where there is greater development of basic infrastructure； the extensiveness of transportation facilities is shown to have a signifi
20、cantly positive effect on the location of FDI. A one per cent increase in transportation route density is associated with a 0.46 per cent increase in provincial FDI accumulation. Adult literacy has a small, nonetheless significant, positive effect on the destination of FDI in china. As we noted abov
21、e, when the cost of labour is relatively insignificant (as is the case in China where wage rates vary little from region to region), the quality of the labour force is expected to have a foreign investors FDI location decision. A one per cent decrease in the adult illiteracy ratio is shown to be ass
22、ociated with a 0.05 percentage point increase in FDI. As expected, a provinces geographical location makes a significant difference in its FDI accumulation potential. The coastal regions have shown a clear advantage over inland provinces in their ability to attract FDI. The dummy variable that puts
23、the 29 provinces and autonomous regions into two broad categories is shown to be highly sensitive to the pattern of Chinese FDI distribution. Our results imply that coastal provinces have a 1.3 percentage point edge over their inland counterparts. It is the combined effects of being close to major s
24、hipping ports and being granted special investment incentives that set the coastal regions apart from others. We thus conclude that to a large extent the destination of FDI within China is determined by market size, the extent of infrastructure development, the basic education level among adults, vi
25、cinity to import and export markets as well as capital sources, and special investment policies. 劳动力成本。 外国投资者一般的目标是利用东道国成本更低的因素投入（与他们的母国相比），而在这方面劳务成本通常被视为重要的一种因素。换句话说，外国投资者在跨国决定投资区位时，对于劳动成本的变化很敏感。然而， FDI 在国家内的区位决定对劳动成本的变化表现得不是很敏感。确实，虽然在中国投资的决定很大程度上是被中国现行的低工资率影响着，一旦决定在中国投资，也没有必要非得找到最便宜的劳动力地区投资，因为工资差异
26、的意义并不十分明显。事实上，由于中国的中央宏观调控倾向于使工资率平均化，很有可能观察到不同地区的工资率（包括奖 金和各种福利）差异并不像其他国家那么大。因此，工资率更高的省可能被认为在吸引外商直接投资方面不是很有利，我们的预期是这个变量在省际 FDI 积聚中不会带来一个强大的负面影响。对劳动力成本的测量我们使用的变量是雇员和劳动者的年度平均省际工资。 人力资本。 东道国地区的劳动力供给不仅在投入成本方面对外国投资者的位置产生影响，而且也通过劳动力技巧的质量施加影响 特别是当价格机制被抑制，而中国的劳动力市场通常就是这样。所有其他的事情都是公平的，具有高度熟练工人的场所 最容易用教育水平来测量 预计会比其他场所在吸 引外国直接投资方面有更大优势。在这项研究中，成人文盲代表了一个省的劳动者接受基础教育的程度。数据取自中国 1990 年的第四届全国人口普查，当时人口被归类为文盲和半文盲。这两种分类被除以省的人口小于 6 岁和大于 6 岁以便获得文盲率。 基础设施。 毫无争议，一个区域的基础设施建设在投资者的区位选择中是非常重要的。基础设施，
