1、 - 1 - 中文 3687 字 毕业论文 外文翻译 外文题目： ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS IN LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. METROPOLITAN REGIONS 出 处： JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE， 2006， 46(8)： 425-453 作 者： Min Hwang John M. Quigley 原 文 ： ABSTRACT This paper investigates the effects of national and regional economic conditio
2、ns on outcomes in the single-family housing market； housing prices, vacancies, and residential construction activity. Our three-equation model confirms the importance of changes in regional economic conditions, income, and employment on local housing markets. The results also provide the first detai
3、led evidence on the importance of vacancies in the owner-occupied housing market on housing prices and supplier activities. The results also document the importance of variations in materials, labor and capital costs, and regulation in affecting new supply Simulation exercises, using standard impuls
4、e response models, document the lags in market responses to exogenous shocks and the variations arising from differences in local parameters. The results also suggest the importance of local regulation in affecting the pattern of market responses to regional income shocks. 1. INTRODUCTION Housing ma
5、rkets are local, and housing market outcomes reflect local economic conditions. Housing prices are hid up as a result of better employment opportunities and higher incomes enjoyed by residents in an expanding metropolitan market. Changes in the distribution of income are reflected in the distributio
6、n of prices and housing amenities. Similarly, housing vacancy rates can be expected to decline when the local economy improves and as the demand for housing increases. Finally, residential construction and building activity are responsive to housing prices, vacancy rates, and the health of the local
7、 economy. As higher incomes increase the - 2 - demand for housing, prices are bid up； new construction becomes more profitable, inducing supplier activity. Dwellings that would otherwise become vacant remain occupied, and some dwellings that would otherwise leave the housing stock are renovated for
8、continued use. This paper considers the inter-relationship among these three forms of economic behavior in the context of local housing markets. We model the relationship among the prices of owner-occupied housing, vacancy rates, and housing supplier activity in response to the exogenous factors, wh
9、ich affect the fortunes of the regional economy. We also recognize the importance of local land use and building regulations in affecting the operation of the owner-occupied housing market. Our analysis uses U. S. metropolitan areas (MSAs) as units of observation, and we follow a panel of 74 MSAs ov
10、er the 13-year period, 1987-1999. The panel includes all U.S. metropolitan areas for which annual data are available on the prices of owner occupied housing, on the vacancy rates in single-family housing, and on supplier activity (i.e., the number of permits issued for construction of new single-fam
11、ily housing). In this paper, we develop a model relating exogenous changes in regional employment and incomes, construction costs and macro economic conditions to these measures of the health of housing markets prices, vacancies, and new construction. The model is estimated in several variants, and
12、we simulate the responsiveness of the housing market to local economic conditions. The model indicates the strong interdependency between the state of the macro economy, the state of the regional economy, and outcomes in the housing market. The results also suggest the key role of local regulation i
13、n affecting housing outcomes. In Section 2 below, we relate our work to previous attempts to develop regional models of the housing market. Section 3 presents an overview of the data and the methodology we use, as well as the relationships among the various measures of the housing market. Section 4
14、presents data. Section 5 presents our statistical results and the simulations based upon them. Section 6 is a brief conclusion. 2. ANTECEDENTS A simple model of supply and demand at the regional level motivates the choice of - 3 - variables to explain outcomes in the housing market over time. Housin
15、g demand is a function of prices and incomes and perhaps demographic variables as well. Housing supply is a function of profitability, which depends upon housing prices and input prices, including the costs of labor, materials, financing, and regulations inhibiting new construction. Vacancy rates in
16、 existing housing reflect the difference between aggregate supply and demand in the market in any period. Several early papers (following Reid, 1962； Muth, 1960, 1968) analyzed variations in housing prices across metropolitan areas, focusing on the reduced form of relationship between the prices of
17、owner-occupied housing and metropolitan characteristics. Using these models, it is easy to describe the development of house prices, but it is quite difficult to make inferences about structural parameters or about causation. In contrast, a few more recent studies have investigated structural relati
18、onships among housing market outcomes. Poterba (1984) analyzed the interaction between movements in prices and housing stocks, modeled as a two-equation system. The growth of housing prices is represented as a function of the difference between current prices and imputed rentals, while the growth of
19、 the housing stock is related to real housing prices as a proxy for profitability) and to the size of the current stock. In this simple stock-flow model, there are no leads or lags. Vacancies in the housing stock are ignored. DiPasquale and Wheaton (1994) specified a model for housing demand in whic
20、h the price of owner-occupied housing within a given housing market is a function of the current stock of single-family housing relative to the number of households, their age-expected homeownership rate,* the cost of renting relative to owning in the market, and the average household income within
21、the market. In a second equation, the authors modeled housing starts as a function of current prices, costs, and the stock of housing, as well as employment and time on the market for new units. Most of supplier behavior in this model is explained by exogenous changes in interest rates, employment levels, and time on the market. The authors interpret this latter variable as evidence of slow adjustment in housing markets. 3. OVERVIEW OF THE MODEL
