1、中文 3760 字 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目： The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries 出 处： Energy Economics , 2000(22)： 615-625. 作 者： John Asafu-Adjaye 原文： Abstract This paper estimates the causal relationships between energy
2、consumption and income for India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, using cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques. The results indicate that, in the short-run, unidirectional Granger causality runs from energy to income for India and Indonesia, while bidirectional Granger causa
3、lity runs from energy to income for Thailand and the Philippines. In the case of Thailand and the Philippines, energy, income and prices are mutually causal. The study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other, with the exception of Indonesia and I
4、ndia where neutrality is observed in the short-run.2000 Elsevier Science B.V.All rights reserved. 1. Introduction In the past two decades numerous studies have examined the causal relation-ships between energy consumption and economic growth, with either income or employment used as a proxy for the
5、latter. To date, the empirical findings have been mixed or conflicting. The seminal article on this topic was published in the late seventies by Kraft and Kraft (1978) who found evidence in favor of causality running from GNP to energy consumption in the United States, using data for the period 1947
6、-1974. Their findings were later supported by other researchers. For example, Akarca and Long (1979).found unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to employment with no feedback, using US monthly data for the period 1973-1978.They estimated the long-run elasticity of total e
7、mploy-ment with respect to energy consumption to be -0.1356. However, these findings have been subjected to empirical challenge. Akarca and Long (1980), Erol and Yu (1987a), Yu and Choi (1985), and Yu and Hwang (1984) found no causal relationships between income (peroxide by GNP) and energy consumpt
8、ion. On the causal relationship between energy consumption and employ-ment, Erol and Yu (1987b,1989),Yu and Jin (1992),and Yu et al.(1988) found evidence in favor of neutrality of energy consumption with respect to employ-ment, referred to as the neutrality hypothesis. One of the reasons for the dis
9、parate and often conflicting empirical findings on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth lies in the variety of approaches and testing procedures employed in the analyses. Many of the earlier analyses employed simple log-linear models estimated by ordinary least squares (OL
10、S) without any regard for the nature of the time series properties of the variables involved. However, as has recently been proven, most economic time series are non-stationary in levels form (see Granger and Newbold, 1974).Thus, failure to account for such properties could result in misleading rela
11、tionships among the variables. Following advances in time series analysis in the last decade, recent tests of the energy consumption economic growth relationship have employed bivariate causality procedures based on Granger (1969) and Sims(Sims,1972) tests. How-ever, these tests may fail to detect a
12、dditional channels of causality and can also lead to conflicting results. For example, recently, Glasure and Lee (1997) tested for causality between energy consumption and GDP for South Korea and Singapore using the standard Granger test, as well as cointegration and error-correction modeling. They
13、found bidirectional causality between income and energy for both countries, using cointegration and error-correction modeling. However, using the standard Granger causality tests, they found no causal relationships between GDP and energy for South Korea and unidirectional Granger causality from ener
14、gy to GDP for Singapore. The direction of causation between energy consumption and economic growth has significant policy implications. If, for example, there exists unidirectional Granger causality running from income to energy, it may be implied that energy conservation policies may be implemented
15、 with little adverse or no effects on economic growth. In the case of negative causality running from employment to energy (Akarca and Long, 1979), total employment could rise if energy conservation policy were to be implemented. On the other hand, if unidirectional causality runs from energy consum
16、ption to income, reducing energy consumption could lead to a fall in income or employment. The finding of no causality in either direction, the so-called neutrality hypothesis (Yu and Jin, 1992), would imply that energy conservation policies do not affect economic growth. This paper examines the ene
17、rgy income relationship for four energy-dependent Asian developing countries: India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. These countries were chosen because they represent energy-dependent LDCs which are poised for take-off into a phase of industrialization. We depart from previous studies by c
18、onsidering a trivariate model (energy, income and prices) rather than the usual bivariate approach. This approach offers the opportunity to investigate other channels in the causal links between energy consumption and economic growth. 2. Economic and energy use profiles The four countries are heavil
19、y populated and have a combined total of 1.3 billion people (Table 1).Of the four, India is the least wealthy on a per capita income basis of comparison, with a per capita GDP of US$380(1996 dollars )which is the average for the South Asia region. The others have per capita incomes of over US$1000 (
20、see Table 1).All four countries recorded high annual growth rates in their manufacturing sectors in 1996, ranging from 10.5%for Indonesia to 5.6%for the Philippines. Of course, these impressive growth rates would have declined in 1997 and beyond in view of the Asian financial crisis. To maintain the
21、 high levels of economic output these countries make high demands on energy resources. Table 1 reports figures for per capita energy use and carbon dioxide emissions for the four countries in the sample. Energy use per capita is highest for Thailand in 1995 with 878 kg, followed by Indonesia with 442 kg per capita. India has the lowest per capita energy use with 260 kg. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita are also
