1、中文 3310 字 原 文 : An analysis of the dynamics of the tourism industry in Brazil：challenges and recommendations 出 处： International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 作 者： Filipe Sobral,Alketa Peci,Gustavo Souza Abstract Purpose The main purpose of this study is to present an analysis of the
2、 dynamics of the tourism market in South America and, more specifically, in Brazil, by measuring and analyzing the growth in tourists arrivals to the region between 1998 and 2002. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the shift-share technique that decomposes the growth of the number of touris
3、ts into various components, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period. Findings Despite the fact that Brazil is the leading tourist destination in South America, the study shows that Brazil has been losing ground in relation to some of its neighbors in South America. Th
4、e study also revealed the impact of 9/11 and Argentinas crises and the growing participation of the European tourist in Brazil. Originality/value Despite some limitations, this technique has the advantage of focusing on a region scarcely studied in mainstream tourism researches and offering Brazilia
5、n policy-makers a new methodology such that they may take advantage of emerging opportunities and create competitive advantages for the country. Keywords :Tourism, Public policy, Brazil, South America Introduction Tourism is a sector experiencing major growth in terms of the global economy. Ever sin
6、ce the 1950s when international travel became accessible to the public in general, the number of tourists has been growing at an average rate of 6.8 percent per year. Estimates are that in 2005 the number of incoming tourists totaled 808 million. The trends for the future of the tourism industry ind
7、icate that by 2020 the number of incoming international tourists will be in the order of 1.6 billion (World Tourism Organization, 2006). According to World Travel and Tourism Council it is expected that the tourism will contribute 3.6 percent to global GDP in 2006 (World Travel and Tourism Council,
8、2006). In view of the importance of the tourism sector, this study seeks to contribute with another potentially useful technical analysis tool for evaluating the sector. The objective is to provide policy makers in Brazil with a systematic approach towards managing their tourism efforts and activiti
9、es. The article concludes with a series of recommendations for public policies in the area of tourism based on the discussion of results of the model integrated with the results of other studies and research. The tourism industry in South America In terms of economic impact, tourism is a recent phen
10、omenon in South America. With the exception of the 1960-1970 decade, the growth of tourism on the American continent (North, Central and South America) was always below the world average(World Tourism Organization, 2005). Factors such as the great distance from the major tourist-generating markets,
11、the timidity of the regional economies, as well as the prolonged economic recessions, had a negative impact on the development of regional and intra-regional tourism (Santana, 2000). Only in the 1990s South America emerged as a potential tourism destination, with Brazil, Argentina and Chile as the m
12、ain players in the region. Factors like the transition to democracy, the consolidation of economic blocks, the growth of commerce with the major world markets and the improvement of basic public services, contributed positively to the development of tourism in the region. In conjunction with this th
13、e opening up of the markets and massive investments in infrastructure facilitated the flow of tourism to traditional and non-traditional destinations in South America(Gouvea, 2004； Santana, 2000). Even though the growth in the Americas has followed the worldwide trend, tourism has an unrealized grow
14、th potential in the majority of South American countries. Only recently some countries have adopted tourism as a strategic alternative. In accordance with projections of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) for 2006, it is expected that US$163,362 billion will be generated in economic activit
15、y (total demand)by the tourism industry. An impact of 7.2 percent on the GDP of Latin American countries is expected, as well as the generation of 12.1 million jobs, namely 6.9 percent of the total (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). The tourism industry in Brazil With respect to Brazil, it is
16、 possible to affirm that tourism is a relatively important economic activity, with great future growth potential. The contribution to GDP of the tourism industry in Brazil is estimated at 2.8 percent for 2006 (US$25.3 billion),increasing in nominal terms to US$ 36 billion (2.7 percent of GDP) by 201
17、6 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). The importance of the tourism sector in Brazil becomes more apparent when one evaluates its social impact, especially in generating jobs. Estimates of the Ministry of Labor and Employment reveal that over the 2003/2005 three-year period, the economic activ
18、ity of tourism generated 560,000 new jobs (Embratur, 2006). For 2006, estimates of the total number of job positions generated by the tourism industry are 5.5 million, in other words 6.4 percent of the job total. By 2016, the total should reach approximately 9 million job positions, corresponding to
19、 6.6 percent of the total (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). Despite the fact that Brazil is the largest Latin American country with incomparable cultural and ecological exuberance and diversity, both the public and private sectors have underestimated tourism. The analysis of historical data
20、on tourism in Brazil shows that it was only in the middle of the 1990s that the tourism industry really took off. The year 2000 saw the highest number ever recorded in terms of tourist arrivals in the country with 5.3 million international arrivals. For Brazil, Argentina is the main source of incomi
21、ng tourists with 922,484 tourists,followed by the USA (705,997), Portugal (336,988), Uruguay (309,732), Germany(294,989), Italy (276,563) and France (224,160) (Embratur, 2005a, b). Due to the economic crisis that Argentina suffered in 2002, its participation in the influx of tourists to Brazil fell
22、from 32.8 percent in 2000 to 19.24 percent in 2004. However, the country is still in top place among the main tourist groupings entering Brazil. With respect to the average expense per capita/day, the average spending by international tourists was US$87.99 and the average length of stay was 13.5 days (Embratur, 2005a, b). Research conducted into the image of the country abroad confirms the fact that the attraction of Brazil as a tourist destination is based on its natural beauty and exoticism,though the negative perceptions regarding social and economic conditions of the country, as well as
