1、1 中文 3577 字 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目： CHINAS EXCHANGE RATE POLICY AND ASIAN TRADE 出 处： New Finance,2009(9) 作 者： Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Tuuli Koivu 原 文 : Abstract This paper shows empirically that Chinas trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi. However, t
2、he current size of the trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The potential reduction in the trade surplus resulting from an increase in the renminbi exchange rate is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to
3、 a renminbi appreciation they tend to fall rather than increase. By estimating bilateral import equations for China and its major trade partners, we find that the reaction for imports is generally confirmed for Chinas trade with Southeast Asian countries. That result might be attributable to Asias v
4、ertical integration, as a large share of Chinese imports from Southeast Asia are re-exported. We also find that total exports from a number of Asian countries react negatively to a renminbi appreciation, which points to a dependence of Asian countries exports on those of China. Keywords: China, trad
5、e, exports, real exchange rate I. Introduction Chinas share in world trade has increased extremely rapidly during the past years. In fact, it is already one of the largest exporters in the world, together with Germany and the United States. Until recently, Chinas trade balance was very close to zero
6、. According to Chinas customs statistics, its trade surplus amounted to mere USD 32 billion (or 1.7% of GDP) in 2004 (Graph 1). However, since 2005 the trade surplus has ballooned: it 2 reached nearly USD 180 billion in 2006 (close to 7% of GDP) and increased further in 2007, to more than 10% of GDP
7、. On the one hand, Chinese policymakers appear to be maintaining an artificially low exchange rate for the renminbi so as to profit from external demand and achieve a much needed high growth rate. On the other hand, given that prices may still play only a limited role in supply and demand decisions
8、in Chinas transitional economy, doubts have been raised that the exchange rate can be an effective tool in reducing the trade surplus. Linked to the first argument is the fact that China is facing strong pressure from industrial countries to appreciate the renminbi. The real effective exchange rate
9、(REER) of the renminbi rose steeply from 1994 until end-1997 but tended to decline after that until the move to a more flexible exchange rate regime was announced in July 2005. Thereafter the renminbi has appreciated somewhat in real terms. The question is whether and to what extent the sharp increa
10、se in the trade surplus can be explained by such a real depreciation. The large size of Chinas trade surplus makes the issue important not only for China but also for the rest of the world. The existing literature is not conclusive. The lack of appropriate data and sufficiently long time series has
11、discouraged research on the link between the renminbi exchange rate and Chinas trade. Since the summer of 2003, when discussions on the undervaluation of the renminbi came to the forefront, research on Chinas exchange rate policy has blossomed, but much of it has focused on estimating the long-run e
12、quilibrium exchange rate for China or exploring what kind of exchange rate regime best suits the Chinese economy. While both questions are clearly relevant, the most urgent issue given the size of global imbalances is whether China should use currency appreciation as a tool to reduce its huge trade
13、surplus. Our paper analyzes this question empirically using cointegration analysis. According to our results, a real appreciation of the renminbi would reduce Chinas trade surplus in the long run, but the effect would be limited. The relatively small impact compared with the size of the imbalance is
14、 mainly explained by the peculiar price elasticity we find for imports: namely, Chinese imports are negatively affected by the renminbis real appreciation. By estimating bilateral import equations, we find that imports from Asian countries tend to fall but not those from other countries. This appare
15、ntly counterintuitive result might well be explained by the 3 vertical integration that characterises intraregional trade in Asia: Chinese imports from the rest of Southeast Asia are mostly geared towards re-export. In addition, we show evidence that the Southeast Asian countries do not seem able to
16、 compensate for the reduction in their exports to China by increasing exports to other countries, as their total exports are generally negatively affected by the renminbis appreciation. In other words, exports from Southeast Asian countries seem to be a complement to exports from China rather than a
17、 substitute for them. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the existing literature. Section 3 describes the methodology and the data used. Section 4 presents the results on how Chinas exports and imports react to changes in the exchange rate and demand. In Section 5, we d
18、ig deeper into the issue of why Chinese imports do not get a boost from the renminbis appreciation； to do so, we estimate bilateral trade equations with Chinas main trade partners and then analyse the export equations of selected Asian countries. Section 6 concludes. IV. Results for Chinas import an
19、d export equations As a preliminary step, we test for the order of integration of the variables included in our analysis. We use the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests for the existence of a unit root. Nearly all variables are found to be non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differences
20、. We then test for the existence of cointegration vectors using the Johansen procedure. We find at least one cointegrating vector for each variable group. As proposed by Phillips and Loretan (1991),the presence of the cointegrating vectors allows us to estimate a regression of the lagged determinant
21、s and their differences through a non-linear least squares approach. Such an approach will yield unbiased and consistent estimates of the long-run and short-run parameters. Besides regressions on export and import equations for our full sample (19942005), we also ran such regressions for a shorter p
22、eriod (200005) that concentrates on the period of WTO influence. In both cases, we consider it important to distinguish between processed and ordinary trade and, therefore, run separate equations for each of them in the case of both exports and imports. The maximum number of short-term lags introduc
23、ed in the equations was three, and we ultimately included only those that were statistically significant. The full results for the export equations can be found in Table A2 in the Appendix.16 As expected, long-run exchange rate elasticities of Chinas exports both processed and ordinary are negative and significant in our full sample and also
