1、中文 2795 字 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目： Behavioural Determinants Of foreign Direct Investment 出 处： University of Bath 作 者： Ricardo Pinheiro Alves 原 文： Behavioral Determination Of Foreign Direct Investment Picardo Pinheiro Alves Abstract The paper presents a behavioural economics approach to foreign direct invest
2、ment. Starting from behavioural finance theory, it uses content analysis from interviews made to Portuguese managers with investments abroad. The study presents evidence of herding, anchoring, overconfidence, mental accounting and other behaviour rules in firms location decisions that originate a se
3、t of determinants of FDI flows and complement the neoclassical paradigm. Moreover, it confirms the Heiner model (1983, 1985, 1989) by showing that the higher the uncertainty faced by decision makers the more frequent will be the use of behavioural rules. The central role of uncertainty helps explain
4、 why FDI flows occur more frequently among developed countries. 1.Introduction FDI theory has been developing on a partial-equilibrium basis and its empirical analysis is often not conclusive indicating that there are many determinants of FDI decisions and their role varies with context (countries,
5、firms and so on Blonigen, 2005). But theory seldom considers the role of managers within the decision making process. Psychologists recognize that managers, as human beings in general, have several motivational factors that are either intrinsic to their personality or shaped by their environment and
6、 may have multiple and changing objectives that are often contradictory (Frey and Eichenberger, 2001). Values are subject to choices and change with the personal experience of individuals. This change in values modifies the objectives that individuals attempt to attain (Akerlof, 1983). Given that ma
7、nagers have checks on their performance (from competition, shareholders, customers and employees) they often do make their choices more carefully than as if they acted as individuals. But managers are not immune to moral, cultural and other social influences usually disregarded by the economic liter
8、ature.Moreover, the behavioural finance literature has shown (e.g. Shiller, 2003) that simpler decisions in equity markets or portfolio investment cannot be totally explained by a neoclassical approach. Thus, the role of managers seems suitable to provide a complementary perspective to mainstream ec
9、onomics,and thus an enrichment of FDI theory.The aim of this paper is to show that the behavioural approach can make a contribution to FDI theory by identifying a new set of determinants, similar to those presented in behavioural finance. These are rules of behaviour repeatedly followed by managers
10、that motivate firms to choose exact locations in external markets This approach is better suited than what is usually assumed in economic models to show the complexity of FDI location decisions because it gives a central role to the uncertainty (risk as part of unknowns plus unknown unknowns) faced
11、by managers. It is the purpose of this paper todisplay uncertainty in accordance with the reality of FDI location decisions. That is, to enhance the relevance of factors that go beyond the standard assumptions of neoclassical theory and to include behavioural characteristics that affect the percepti
12、ons of managers in their decision making process.Hence it is important to understand the different perceptions of managers and to understand how they impact real life FDI location decisions. The focus on uncertainty is based on the Heiner (1983, 1985, 1989) model of behaviour prediction.The use of a
13、 behavioural framework, based on the “behaviouralists” (e.g. Simon) and on economic psychology (e.g. Tversky and Kahneman), allows a better understanding of the key determinants in FDI location decisions. The central idea of the model is the higher the uncertainty the higher should be the use of beh
14、avioural rules. It was theoretically applied to FDI in Hosseini (2005) and an empirical confirmation, using data from Portuguese firms, is made in the paper.The empirical work is based on interviews and the interpretation of information through content analysis as a complement to the enormous amount
15、 of quantitative work found in the FDI literature.This is reinforced by statistical tests in order to assess the results obtained in the qualitative work. The following section briefly reviews FDI theory by pointing to its limits while section 3 details the methodology and section 4 presents empiric
16、al evidence of behavioural rules. Section 5 deals with the role of uncertainty by testing the Heiner model and the paper ends with a brief conclusion. 2 Limits to FDI theory Consider a firm deciding whether to invest abroad and where to locate its investment. A rational decision-maker attempts to ma
17、ximize the present value of the difference between revenue and costs when answering these questions. For this end it must collect substantial information and by assuming a discount rate from the expected inflation, the desired rate of return and the presumed associated risk, it can calculate a net p
18、resent value for the investment.The decision to invest abroad and where to locate the investment depends on the decision-makers expectations about the value of these variables for the various available alternatives. If the decision to go abroad is already made, the location of the investment, and it
19、s expected revenue and costs, becomes the relevant issue. Thus, one can consider that the two key variables for rational location decisions are revenue and costs.Economic literature has presented several explanations impacting revenue and costs for FDI to occur2.Transnational companies (TNCs), when
20、making FDI location decisions within imperfect markets,seek to improve their revenue stream in several ways. They use specific advantages over local competitors in the host market to compensate the additional costs of investing abroad. Several specific advantages are noted: product differentiation, managerial and marketing skills, innovation and The will to minimize transactional costs and thus to be more cost-efficient is also used by the FDI literature to explain location decisions. The transactional costs approach explains the
