1、 1 中文 2966 字 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题 目： TOURISM AS LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTOR:THE SPANISH CASE 出 处： Primera Edicin Junio 2000 Depsito Legal: V-2576-2000 作 者： Jacint Balaguer and Manuel Cantavella-Jord 原文 ： TOURISM AS A LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTOR: THE SPANISH CASE Jacint Balaguer and Manuel Cantavel
2、la-Jord* A B S T R A C T This paper examines the role of tourism in the Spanish long-run economic development. The tourist-led growth hypothesis is tested. The results indicate that, at least, during the last three decades economic growth in Spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of interna
3、tional tourism. The increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time. External competitivity has also been proved in the model to be a fundamental variable for Spanish economic growth in the long run. From the empirical analysis it can be inferred the positive effects on income th
4、at government policy, in the adequacy of supply as well as in the promotion of tourist activity, may bring about. Key words: economic growth, international tourism, multiplier effects I. INTRODUCTION A distinctive feature of Spain is its importance as an international tourist 2 destination as well a
5、s the relative weight that foreign exchange income has in its economy. As a matter of fact, the earnings from tourism have systematically compensated Spanish trade imbalances since the seventies. In view of this situation, the economists have very often taken for granted that the inflow of foreign e
6、xchange for this concept would stimulate a countrys economic development. Nevertheless, this hypothesis has not been yet tested and therefore it may be interesting to analyse whether it is empirically significant or not over time. Several decades of tourist expansion in Spain may probably represent
7、enough time to examine if international tourism growth has significantly contributed to the countrys economic development. The analysis should go beyond its own multiplier effects. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to asses whether and, if so, to what extent Spanish economic growth responds
8、to the evolution of external tourist activity during the 1975-1997 period. The background on this question is referred to the literature of the export-led growth hypothesis and to recent theoretical models which only consider non-traded goods such as tourism. As in the export-led growth hypothesis,
9、a tourist-led growth hypothesis would postulate the existence of various arguments for which tourism would become a main determinant of overall long-run economic growth. In a more traditional sense it should be argued that tourism brings in foreign exchange which can be used to import capital goods
10、in order to produce goods and services, leading in turn to economic growth. If those imports are capital goods or basic inputs for producing goods in any area of the economy, then, one can say that earnings from tourism are playing a fundamental role in economic development. Obviously, non-tourist r
11、egions will also benefit from it as a result of the distribution of a countrys wealth. On the other hand, international tourism would contribute to an income increase at least in two additional ways as the export-led growth hypothesis postulates. In the first place, enhancing efficiency through incr
12、eased competition among firms and others international tourist destinations (Bhagwati and Srinivasan, 1979； Krueger, 1980), and in the second place, facilitating the exploitation of economies of scale in local firms (Helpman and Krugman,1985). 3 Taking into account that a large proportion of a touri
13、sts expenditure is spent on the consumption of non-traded goods and services in the host country, there exist factors which can have either a positive role or an unfavourable impact on economic growth. Non-traded goods and services are not exportables in the traditional sense because their price is
14、not determined in the international market, but in the local market. Obviously, tourists consumption of non-traded goods and services has a impact on the relative price and availability of the non-traded goods and services for the domestic consumer. In the static framework, there are at least two an
15、alytical papers which examine the relationship between tourism and welfare where tourists consume non-traded goods and services. In the first paper, Hazari and Ng (1993) show that in a monopoly power framework, tourism may be welfare reducing. In the second paper, Hazari and Kaur (1993) argue that i
16、n a Komiya (1967) type first-best model, tourism is always welfare improving. More recently, Hazari and Sgro (1995) developed a dynamic model in which a favourable impact of a buoyant world demand for tourism would have a positive effect on the long-run growth of a small economy. This favourable imp
17、act is generated by tourism behaviour as a time-saving device which allows domestic population to consume now rather than later due to the requirement of a lower saving rate. The remainder structure of this paper is organised as follows. In section II, a tourism growth model is presented. Section II
18、I discusses the employed methodology and results. Section IV provides the main conclusions of the analysis. II. MODEL SPECIFICATION AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS In order to explain the growth rate of output over long periods one is usually referred to a couple of complementary approaches. One is growth theory, which models the interactions among factor supplies, productivity growth, saving, and investment in the process of growth. The other is growth accounting, which attempts to quantify the contribution of different determinants of output growth. Most papers,
