1、中文 4029 字 外文文献： Central and Eastern European countries is how to use FDI to develop employment Justin Blair Date of Publication: 4 August 2009 A Central and Eastern European countries, FDI, output and employment data description (A) changes in economic growth and employment trends described From a p
2、lanned economy to a market economy at the beginning, most Central and Eastern European countries have experienced serious transformational recession. Starting in 1995, these countries have begun to resume growth in the late 1990s to the beginning of the transition to restore the level of economic de
3、velopment, 1995 to 2007 are in the 3-4.5% growth rate. The resumption of growth accompanied by a substantial increase in productivity, employment has had a profound impact in most countries (especially the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) slow employment growth even at a standstill. Of course, by
4、 the different effects of reform rhythm, different country-specific unemployment situation is very different. Hungary and Slovenia in 1995 before the unemployment rate is already high, and then declined. Czech unemployment rate is less than 5% from 1996 to 1999, the rapid rise of nearly 10%, mainly
5、by its lagging economic reforms and the end of the 1990s due to the financial crisis. Poland and Slovakia, the unemployment rate in the early 1990s has been at a high level, even in the late 1990s to 20%, followed by decline, even so, in 2005 the level of unemployment in these two countries remains
6、18% and 16%. Weak employment situation with countries in stark contrast, since 1995 the GDP of these countries, especially in the economic value have experienced substantial growth. Compare Figure 1 and Figure 2, it is clear that changes in the rate of employment growth trajectory and the trajectory
7、 of the economy does not match, employment growth lagged behind economic growth, there is no doubt that the employment problem for the Central and Eastern European countries are still facing an economic development major challenge. (Two) FDI, industrial structure and employment structure description
8、 The added value of a structure of three industries After transformation of Central and Eastern European countries in economic development presents a clear go farming trend, either output or employment (see Table 1 and Table 2), the agricultural sector in the economic development of the position are
9、 very limited, and the proportion showing downward trend, as of 2007, studied in this paper seven in Central and Eastern European countries, agriculture accounted for the proportion of total economic value added is below 5%. In addition to the Czech Republic, the manufacturing output in all countrie
10、s have different degrees of gravity of decline, the proportion is less than 25%. With agriculture and manufacturing in stark contrast, the service sector in economic development, a significant increase in the proportion of the average total economic added value accounted for more than 60%. Two three
11、 industrial employment structure In the planned economy, the service industry gave way to industrial and agricultural, so the period of economic restructuring, an important feature of labor from agriculture and industry to services flows. The proportion of service sector employment in all countries
12、increased significantly and accounted for more than 60% were. Latvia, the lowest proportion of service sector employment, 58.7%. Therefore, regardless of the structure of output or employment from a structural point of view, the CEE countries have already entered service-oriented development stage.
13、3 FDI in the manufacturing and distribution services From the industrial distribution, since 1997, national service sector FDI overall upward trend (except for Latvia and Lithuania), in which Poland and Slovenia rising fastest. Services FDI FDI stock accounted for the proportion of each country were
14、 more than 40%, of which the highest proportion of Hungary, reaching 88%. It is noteworthy that, although the proportion of national downward trend in FDI in manufacturing industry, but the economy still occupies an important position. Services and manufacturing FDI of these countries to attract FDI
15、 accounted for the proportion of total above 80%, indicating that these two industries than in other sectors attracting FDI is very limited. Comprehensive preceding analysis we can see that the proportion of manufacturing industry in attracting FDI in the economy and manufacturing output and employm
16、ent share is not very consistent. Second, the empirical analysis In our empirical study, respectively, with value-added manufacturing and services value added to the total value added ratio change indicates changes in industrial structure, but with manufacturing employment and employment services em
17、ployment to the total employment rate of change indicates structure. Employment indicators expressed in the literature there are usually two, one is to use employment statistics, and another is to choose the number of hours of social labor. In order to accurately measure the social demand for labor,
18、 we use social labor hours as a measure of employment. FDI, employment and value-added data are derived from Eurostat and the EU klems database, the data used for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania seven countries 1997-2006 panel data. (A) FDI total scale and
19、the scale of employment and employment structure In order to investigate the scale of change on the scale of employment FDI and employment structure changes, we build the model as follows: zjyit = tntfitt + eit mjyit = tntfitt + eit sjyit = tntfit + eit mjyblit = tntfit + eit sjyblit = tntfit + eit
20、Where the subscript i indicates the country, t represents time； tf represents the total stock of FDI society； 2jy, mjy, sjy denote the total social employment logarithmic scale, logarithmic scale manufacturing employment and employment services logarithmic scale ； mjyb1, sjyb1 represent manufacturin
21、g and service sector employment accounted for the proportion of total employment in society. Panel data analysis includes both cross-sectional and time series of factors factors, so the parameter estimates may be affected by different factors simultaneously. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data are ge
22、nerally fixed and random effects in two forms. In this paper, the Hausman test method for determination of the model. Use measurement software stata 10.0 of Eq (1) to (5) for empirical analysis, regression results are as follows: Looking at the results from the regression, FDI expansion does not sig
23、nificantly expand the size of the total social employment. From the industry perspective, FDI scale for each 1% increase in manufacturing employment will be significantly decreased 0.053%, while the services sector increased significantly by 0.065% scale. Meanwhile, we can clearly see, FDI expansion
24、 can significantly reduce manufacturing employment rate and improve service employment rate, employment rate and FDI two departments correlation coefficients were -0.012 and 0.035. Seen in Central and Eastern Europe, FDI increase in the total employment and social expansion of the total between the
25、two are not necessarily linked. But there is indeed a rising scale of FDI to promote economic and social benefit to the service-oriented changes in the employment structure, in the process, the manufacturing sectors ability to absorb employment declined. Meanwhile, we should also see that the optima
26、l social structure of employment and employment growth stagnation exist simultaneously. (Two) FDI industry structure and employment and productivity From the industry point of view to the distribution of FDI on employment, we have established the following model to further differentiate manufacturin
27、g FDI and FDI on the employment impact of the structure and size of employment (measured as above): mjyit = tnmfit + eit mjblit = tnmfit + eit msclit = tnmfit + eit sjyit = tnfit + eit sjyblit = tnsfit + eit ssclit = tnsfit + eit Where: mf, sf FDI in manufacturing and services, respectively, the sca
28、le； mscl, sscl represent value added manufacturing and services expressed in hours of labor productivity. Regression results are as follows: From the regression results, we can clearly see: First, the manufacturing sector, the industry absorbed the scale of FDI on manufacturing employment has signif
29、icant negative correlation between FDI in the sector every 1% increase in employment will decline 0.038%. Manufacturing FDI and manufacturing employment accounted for the proportion of total employment in society as a significant negative correlation, each 1% increase in manufacturing FDI, accounting for the decline in manufacturing
