1、1 中文 3120 字 外 文 翻 译 外文出处 Tax Policy Center 外文 作者 Eric Toder, Joseph Rosenberg 原文 ： Effects of Imposing A Value-added tax to Replace Payroll taxes or Corporate taxes Economic Effects and Behavioral Responses These revenue estimates assumed no behavioral responses. We have estimated the effects of beh
2、avioral responses on receipts or the effects of the various policy options on economic efficiency and output, but provide below some qualitative discussion. Benefits of a VAT Relative to a Payroll Tax A value-added tax is neutral between present and future consumption, so it does not adversely affec
3、t the incentive to save. It does, however, reduce the return from working in the same manner as an individual income tax or payroll tax, although the mechanism for remitting the VAT is very different than the collection mechanism for direct taxes.The result is that the net effect of substituting a V
4、AT for payroll tax on the incentive to work is not large. The substitution of a broad-based VAT for a portion of the employer payroll tax that we simulate would raise the after-tax wage (lower the total tax rate on the employees work product) for workers in the 15 and 25 percent brackets, but lower
5、the after-tax wage (increase the total tax rate on work) for high-wage employees who earn more than the maximum wage subject to OASDI tax (Table 8). In the examples shown, all workers contribute an additional $107.65 to the value of an employers sales. The workers marginal product is assumed to be i
6、nvariant under different tax regimes. Under current law, there is no VAT, but employers 2 withhold from wages $7.65 in employer payroll taxes, leaving $100 of taxable money wages. They also withhold the employees $7.65 payroll tax contribution and the employee in the 15 (25) percent bracket pays an
7、additional $15 ($25) of income taxes. The employee in the 35 percent bracket is assumed to have earnings above the Social Security wage threshold, so she and her employer both pay only the 1.45 percent ($1.54) Medicare payroll tax on a money wage that is now $106.11 for every $107.65 of worker produ
8、ct. The 35 percent income tax rate raises $37.14 on the higher money wage base. The total tax rate (as a share of marginal product) paid by the workers in the 35 percent bracket is about the same as the tax rate in the 25 percent bracket, as the reduced marginal payroll tax rate (from crossing the O
9、ASDI threshold) almost exactly offsets the higher marginal income tax rate. Introducing a 5 percent VAT on a base that includes just 78.6 percent of consumption (see appendix) is equivalent (in terms of its effect on after-tax income) to introducing a VAT of 3.93 percent on all consumption. Because
10、VAT is expressed in tax-exclusive terms (on sales excluding the tax), the tax on rate on sales including the tax is somewhat lower (3.78 percent). The VAT reduces the gross compensation that can be paid to employees, therefore, by 3.78 percent of the workers contribution to sales (including tax). In
11、 the example, this comes out to a VAT of $4.07. The VAT revenues are used to reduce the employer payroll tax rate by 5.9 percentage points to 1.75 percent.For workers in the 15 and 25 percent marginal income tax bracket, the employer payroll tax collected equals $1.81 on the $103.58 of gross compens
12、ation net of VAT. The remaining $101.77 of money wages is then subject to employee payroll tax on $7.79 (7.65 percent) and income tax of $15.27 (in the 15 percent bracket) and $25.44 (in the 25 percent bracket). Note that the net increase in money wages from substituting a VAT for employer payroll t
13、ax contributions raises income tax revenues slightly. The bottom lines, combining all the taxes, are fairly modest declines in the total marginal tax rates on the workers product. For the worker in the 15 percent income rate bracket,substituting VAT for payroll taxes reduces the total marginal tax r
14、ate from 28.1 percent to 26.8 percent. For the worker in the 25 percent income tax 3 bracket, the total marginal rate falls from 37.4 percent to 36.3 percent. Thus, for the workers in lower marginal tax brackets, substituting a VAT for the employer payroll tax slightly increases the after-tax return
15、 from working more. Both the VAT and payroll tax adversely affect work effort, but because part of the VAT also falls on consumption from old wealth, the net return to work from the payroll tax substitution is slightly higher. Table 8 Example: Taxation of Sample Employees, Partial Substitution of a
16、VAT for a Payroll Tax 15% Bracket 25% Bracket 35% Bracket Current Law with VAT Current Law with VAT Current Law with VAT Marginal Product $107.65 $107.65 $107.65 $107.65 $107.65 $107.65 VAT $0.00 $4.07 $0.00 $4.07 $0.00 $4.07 Gross Compensation $107.65 $103.58 $107.65 $103.58 $107.65 $103.58 Employe
17、r Payroll Tax $7.65 $1.81 $7.65 $1.81 $1.54 $1.50 Cash Wage $100.00 $101.77 $100.00 $101.77 $106.11 $102.08 Employee Payroll Tax $7.65 $7.79 $7.65 $7.79 $1.54 $1.50 Income Tax $15.00 $15.27 $25.00 $25.44 $37.14 $35.73 Net Wage $77.35 $78.71 $67.35 $68.54 $67.43 $64.85 Total Tax Rate 28.1% 26.9% 37.4
18、% 36.3% 37.4% 39.8% Notes: VAT is the 5 percent broad-based VAT. It includes 77 percent of consumption, so the VAT rate on all sales is 3.93%. This is a tax exclusive rate； the tax inclusive rate equals (3.93/1.0393) = 3.78%. The payroll tax rates under current law are 7.65% for both the employer an
19、d employee. The VAT revenues are used to reduce the employer payroll tax rate by 5.9 percentage points to 1.75%. For taxpayers in the 35 percent income tax rate bracket, it is assumed that their wages are above the Social Security thresholds, so only the Medicare tax (1.45 percent of the money wage for both the employer and employee) applies at the margin. In the VAT
