1、英文原文： How Real Is Chinas Real Estate Bubble And What Should Be Done about It Think U.S. housing prices have gone berserk? Try those in Shanghai and Beijing, where the cost of homes has been rising an estimated 25% annually in recent years. Thats twice the jump in the median sale price of existing U.
2、S. homes over the past year, and a sign that Chinas real estate market is in the midst of what some observers view as a potentially explosive bubble. The bubble is rooted in such factors as Chinas strong economic growth since 1990 and investor bets that Chinas currency, the yuan, will be revalued up
3、ward in the near future. But such speculation is helping push the price of homes beyond the reach of middle class citizens in key Chinese cities and raising the prospect of a sudden market collapse that could threaten the countrys shaky banking sector and wipe out the life savings of many families.
4、Some see the increasing involvement of U.S. investors in China - including the recent move by Bank of America to buy a 9% stake in China Construction Bank - as a hopeful development when it comes to calming the countrys real estate scene. And given the prospect of social unrest stemming from either
5、continued price hikes or a too-fast price decline, the Chinese government has taken action to cool down the market. But Beijings efforts so far may not be enough to rein in the rising real estate prices, says Wharton marketing professor John Zhang. He warns that the government must be careful in wha
6、tever moves it makes next. “Managing the process of bursting the bubble is really something delicate,” he says. Inconsistent Data Chinas real estate market is relatively new. After years of property being under the strict control of the communist government, China phased out free government-provided
7、 houses in the early 1990s. But even now, there is a legacy of the communist system. The state technically owns the countrys land: Individuals essentially buy rights to build on top of the land or own structures already there. As with other measures of the Chinese economy, its hard to get a precise
8、gauge on how housing prices have been changing in the country. Last year, the countrys average housing price rose by 14.4%, according to a story in June by official Chinese news agency Xinhua citing the countrys National Bureau of Statistics. The story also said that Beijings housing price level had
9、 been dropping. But an official with the statistics bureau acknowledged in the story that the numbers “do not fully represent the general real estate situation” and that some government figures are inconsistent. Given the lack of solid data, it may be premature to define Chinas housing market as a b
10、ubble, notes Wharton real estate professor Grace Wong. Wong, who has written about a rapid run-up in Hong Kong housing prices in the late 1990s, says a bubble is typically defined as prices at levels higher than what economic basics justify. Speculation - when buyers are purchasing homes primarily b
11、ecause they expect the price will increase - can cause a bubble, but price hikes also can arise because of factors such as construction cost increases or an undersupply of homes. “You wouldnt be so worried if the housing prices are moving up because of fundamentals like that,” she notes. Usha Haley,
12、 professor of international business at the University of New Havens School of Business, also suggests that talk about a nationwide bubble can overstate the case. She estimates that housing prices for China overall have been rising 10% annually in recent years. That level makes the countrys real est
13、ate price growth slower than in many other countries around the world, including the United States. But Haley, who recently wrote a book about business in China titled, The Chinese Tao of Business, says the major cities of Shanghai and Beijing are special cases, with annual real estate appreciation
14、rates closer to 25-26% in the past few years, or roughly $784 per square meter in Shanghai. The prices in Beijing are lower, but not by much. Even these prices dont tell the whole story. One source familiar with the Shanghai housing market says unfinished condominium “shells” in new Shanghai high-ri
15、se buildings are being marketed at a price of about $2,000 per square meter. Among the causes of the run-up in Chinese home prices, Haley notes, is government corruption. Local officials can engage in price gouging to enrich themselves individually or conspire to drive up prices on property sales th
16、at pad government coffers. Another factor is Chinas overall economic expansion. Chinas economy grew at an average rate of 10% per year during the period between 1990 and 2004, the highest growth rate in the world, according to the U.S. state department. Chinas total trade in 2004 surpassed $1.1 tril
17、lion, making it the worlds third-largest trading nation after the U.S. and Germany. With China becoming more of a hub in the global economy, it stands to reason there would be greater demand for housing designed for foreign corporate executives and other ex-patriots. This increase in demand has led
18、to higher housing prices, as noted by Kenneth Aboussie, who traveled to China in 2003 to study the real estate market while a student at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin. “There was no question there was a bubble for that high-end housing,” says Aboussie, who now w
19、orks at Austin-based Cypress Real Estate Advisors. Still another cause for Chinas real estate boom is widespread anticipation that China will revalue the yuan soon. Chinas government has been under increasing pressure from the U.S. to dismantle the yuans current peg to the dollar and allow it to inc
20、rease in value. Critics argue Chinas currency is undervalued by roughly 25%, making its exports artificially cheaper and imports into the country more expensive. Should the yuan increase in value, investments in Chinese assets such as real estate can be expected to rise as well, says Whartons Zhang.
21、 “Part of the speculation comes from the expectation of the appreciation of the currency.” Some of those real estate bets based on the yuans revaluation are foreign in nature, Zhang suggests, adding, however, that Chinese citizens also have poured money into real estate holdings, especially after th
22、e disappointing performance of Chinese stocks a few years ago. The Dangers of Panicked Selling As with other economic bubbles throughout history - such as Hollands tulip craze in the 1600s and the Internet stock frenzy earlier this decade - theres a danger that Chinas real estate prices will collaps
23、e quickly. Thats the flip side of the inflated prices associated with a bubble, Zhang explains. Amid panicked selling, buyers may sit on the sidelines until prices crater to unreasonably low values. “When the price is on the way down,” problems can arise that “could destroy the whole real estate mar
24、ket,” Zhang says. According to Haley, a rapid loss of real estate values would harm Chinas major banks. Household loans, including home loans, make up just 10 to 15% of loans in China, but more than half of Chinese lending is collateralized with private property, she says. The run-up in property pri
25、ces has had positive effects, points out Harrison Duan, a Chinese native who attended the McCombs school and accompanied Aboussie on his first-hand study of Chinas real estate market. Construction and steel are among the industries in China that have benefited from the boom. “Over the last five year
26、s, real estate has been a really important growth engine in China,” he notes, adding that those Chinese who bought homes three or four years ago have gained a great deal of wealth, at least on paper. But that equity appreciation may not mean much for families that need to live in their homes even as the skyrocketing prices in places like Shanghai are very disappointing to many city residents. “The Shanghai middle class can no longer afford
