1、原文 : Report from Davos: Risk Management Survivors Offer Cautionary Tales Wharton management professor Michael Useem joined heads of state, politicians, CEOs, celebrities and others at this years World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where, he says, the mood seemed to be one of muted optimism.
2、But, as he points out, there was also a recognition of how much still needs to be done to prevent the kinds of catastrophes - both natural and created - that changed the lives of so many individuals over the past two years. Useem, director of Whartons Center for Leadership and Change Management, off
3、ers this report on Davos. Among the 2,500 business executives, political leaders and others who attended the 2011 meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the mood was one of cautious recuperation from a self-induced, life-threatening illness. The financial crisis had been surmounted but not wi
4、thout lingering frailties, especially the under-employment of the West. The ongoing political upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt added another crisis to the focus in Davos. The Forum arranged a special session on the unfolding actions in North Africa and the Middle East, and many participants sought fre
5、quent updates on the historic events, wondering whether the street protests, in the words of the special session, were a tipping point or tsunami, and whether they would result in a soft landing or a bloody one. Still, cautious optimism prevailed among the national and corporate leaders in Davos tha
6、t they had taken the right steps for at least the financial recovery. Not all their actions had worked, but on balance they had, and many of these leaders promised now to better prepare their agencies or enterprises to manage future threats in a world that has become ever more subject to low-probabi
7、lity but high-consequence events. The Haitian earthquake and BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico served as recent reminders that enormous catastrophes were not only financial - and that much remained to be done for managing extreme risks in a world more vulnerable than ever to both natural and unnatu
8、ral calamities. The agenda going forward: continue to monitor financial institutions and sovereign debt to prevent systemic collapse, build a learning network, redesign the board and rewire the mind. Continuing Vigilance Several of the more than 35 national leaders in Davos vowed to use their state
9、powers to avoid any financial relapse. If governments had learned anything from the near death experience of the crisis, it was to more effectively oversee risk takers and their short-term, self-interested decisions. We were standing on the brink of an abyss, said French President Nicolas Sarkozy of
10、 the financial crisis, and we had to act. But new perils are now leading toward new brinks, he warned, including the teetering sovereign debt of several European nations and a questioning of the euro. In the wake of the banking crisis, governments must again act boldly to prevent further upheaval. T
11、he euro is Europe, he declared. We will never let the euro be destroyed. German Chancellor Angela Merkel added her own defense of the currency, saying it is the embodiment of Europe today. Should the euro fail, Europe will fail. She also sought tougher oversight of the players that had brought on th
12、e financial meltdown to begin with: I always said there would be a new deck of cards on the table after the crisis, though governments have not yet managed to deal all the right cards. Do we have the necessary mechanisms in place to ensure sustainable growth globally? We have laid down the groundwor
13、k, she stated, but we are not there yet. Similarly, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned that, despite six quarters of GDP growth in the U.S., national leaders still had work to do to take catastrophic risks out of the market. And U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, observing that given th
14、e traumas of recent years, the recovery was always going to be choppy, argued that country officials had no choice but to continue to modernize and adapt their economies or otherwise fall behind and fail. Other country leaders cited additional perils that required still more measures. Indonesian Pre
15、sident SusiloBambangYudhoyono worried about emerging conflicts over food, fuel and water that threatened to elevate private greed over public need. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned of the continued fragility of our condition, brought home just days before by a devastating explosion in the Mo
16、scow airport. But he, too, cautioned that the economic recovery was not yet complete. Many tend to speak of the end of the world financial crisis, he stated, but it is quite obvious that it is not all that simple. While the crisis has sobered up everyone, we have coped with only one part of the symp
17、toms of the crisis, and so far we have not found a model for growth. Symptomatic of the heightened awareness of risk management, the Prime Minister of Japan, Naoto Kan, referenced the English utilitarian philosopher Jeremy Benthams principle of creating the greatest happiness for the greatest number
18、. In an era in which the downsides of risk have become more severe, he said that the Japanese government under his leadership, by contrast, would stress policies that generate not the greatest happiness - but rather a society with the least unhappiness - for the greatest number. Building a Learning
19、Network Given the global financial crisis and the devastating events in Haiti and the Gulf, it came as no surprise that the World Economic Forum, under the continuing leadership of founder Klaus Schwab, turned the spotlight at this years 41st annual meeting on both the principles and strategies of r
20、isk management. The Forum launched a new Risk Response Network (RRN), an initiative to identify leading global risks and to better equip public, private and non-profit leaders with shared means for preventing, anticipating or responding to the risks. As part of the RRN initiative, an annual Global R
21、isks report, already in its sixth year, will continue to rank global perils as one pillar of the new network (the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center collaborates in the annual reports preparation). At the top of the reports ranking this year were the two inter-related risks of eco
22、nomic disparities and failing governance. The report warned that the benefits of globalization have not been evenly shared, and when combined with unresponsive or ineffective regimes, resurgent nationalism and populism are a likely product. Evidently, it was just those factors in toxic combination t
23、hat played a major role in stimulating the popular revolt against the long-serving but poorly governed regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. Two other RRN initiatives announced in Davos were intended to furnish country, company and NGO leaders with better tools for appraising risks and responding to disaste
24、rs. A new Leading Practices Exchange will provide them with guidance on how to manage and mitigate risks. And a Community of Risk Officers will establish a network for mutual learning and peer counseling among those at the forefront of risk management. The first risks to be tackled by the new networ
25、k include currency volatility, cyber security and resource scarcity, with others to be added. With this initiative, the World Economic Forum has created an on-going platform to give those engaged in risk management better access to detailed data, proven practices and experienced players. By way of o
26、ne example: A physician at the Davos meeting who had been active in recovery from the Haitian earthquake reported that in some areas, relief agencies provided fresh water to survivors free of charge, while in others a modest charge was imposed. The latter practice would help ration and allocate a st
27、ill scarce resource, vital for recovery. But the physician found that cholera spread far more often through camps that charged for water than through camps that didnt charge, evidently because even a small cost led survivors to use less water in personal hygiene and food preparation. While charging
28、a nominal amount for potable water made good economic sense, the experience here called into question whether it made public health sense. Redesigning the Board The governing board is potentially one of the most pivotal places for the introduction of risk management practices in the view of those at
29、tending an annual-meeting session on Redesigning the Board. Chaired by Berkeley professor Laura DAndrea Tyson, who serves on the boards of several publicly traded companies, the dialogue drew on the experience of Donald J. Gogel, CEO of Clayton, Dubilier& Rice； Richard Haythornthwaite, chair of Mast
30、erCard Worldwide； Kevin Kelly, CEO, Heidrick& Struggles； Davide Serra, managing partner of Algebris Investments, and Daniel Vasella, chair of Novartis. Leaving aside the question of whether company boards contributed to the recent financial crisis, the boardroom could serve as a barricade against th
31、e next crisis - if properly redesigned. The boards traditional focus has been on compliance, control and compensation, fulfilling the oversight function mandated by both government regulators and listing requirements. But that is no longer sufficient, suggested several panel members. Directors should also be engaged in company strategy, talent development and risk management. It is a matter of not only feeding
