1、毕业论文 外文原文及译文 题目 ： 上市公司的融资渠道分析 专业： 指导教师： 学 院 ： 学 号： 班级 ： 姓 名： 一、 外文原文 1.A Description of Efficient Capital Markets An efficient capital market is one in which stock prices fully reflect available information.To illustrate how an efficient market works,suppose the F-stop Camera Corporation(FCC) is att
2、empting to develop a camera that will double the speed of the auto-focusing system now available.FCC believes this research has positive NPV. Now consider a share of stock in FCC.What determines the willingness of investors to hold shares of FCC at a particular price?One important factor is the prob
3、ability that FCC will be the first company to develop the new auto-focusing system.In an efficient market,we would expect the price of the shares of FCC to increase if this probability increases. Suppose FCC hires a well-known engineer to develop the new auto-focusing system.In an efficient market,w
4、hat will happen to FCCs share price when this is announced?If the well-known scientist is paid a salary that fully reflects his or her contribution to the firm,the price of the stock will not necessarily change.Suppose,instead,that hiring the scientist is a positive NPV transaction.In this case,the
5、price of shares in FCC will increase because the firm can pay the scientist a salary blew his or her ture value to the company. When will the increase in the price of FCCs shares take place?Assume that the hiring announcement is made in a press release on Wednesday morning.In an efficient market,the
6、 price of shares in FCC will immediately adjust to this new information.Investors should not be able to buy the stock on Wednesday afternoon and make a profit on Thursday.This would imply that it took the stock market a day to realize the implication of the FCC press release.The efficient market hyp
7、othesis predicts that the price of shares of FCC stock on Wednesday afternoon will already reflect the information contained in the Wednesday morning press release. 2. Independent Deviations from Rationality Suppose that FCCs press release is not all that clear. How many new cameras are likely to be
8、 sold? At what price? What is the likely cost per camera? Will other camera companies be able to develop competing products? How long will this likely take? If these, and other,questions cannot be answered easily, it will be difficult to estimate NPV. Now imagine that, with so many questions going u
9、nanswered, many investors do not think clearly. Some investors might get caught up in the romance of a new product, hoping,and ultimately believing,in sales projections well above what is rational. They would overpay for new shares, And if they needed to sell shares (perhaps to finance current consu
10、mption), they would do so only at a high price. If these individuals dominate the market, the stock price would likely rise beyond what market efficiency would predict. However,due to emotional resistance, investors could just as easily react to new information in a pessimistic manner. Afterall, bus
11、iness historians tell us that investors were initially quite skeptical about the benefits of the telephone, the copier, the automobile, and the motion picture.Certainly, the could be overly skeptical about this new camera. If investors were primarily of this type, the stock price would likely rise l
12、ess than market efficiency would predict. But suppose that about as many individuals were irrationally optimistic as were irrationally pessimistic. Prices would likely rise in a manner consistent with market efficiency,even though most investors would be classified as less than fully rational. Thus,
13、 market efficiency does not require rational individuals, only countervailing irrationalities. However, this assumption of offsetting irrationalities at all times may be unrealistic. Perhaps, at certain times,most investors are swept away by excsssive optimism and,at other times,are caught in the th
14、roes of extreme pessimism.But even here, there is an assumption that will produce efficiency. 二、译文 1 有效资本市场的描述 有效的资本市场是股票价格充分反映 可获得 的信息。 为了说明如何有效的市场运作 ,假设光圈照相机公司（ FCC）是试图发展一个数码相机将 增加一倍的速度的自动聚焦系统 。 FCC 公司认为这一研究具有积极的净现值 。 现在我们来考虑 FCC 公司的 一个股票份额。是什么决定了投资者 愿意 持有 特定价格 FCC 的 股票 ?其中 一个重要因素 是 FCC 公司 将会是第一个公
15、司开发出新的自动聚焦系统。一个有效的市场内 ,如果这个可能性大大增加， 我们预期 FCC 公司 股票价格 上涨， 假设 FCC 公司聘请著名的工程师 开发出新的自动聚焦系统。一个有效的市场内 ,当 FCC 公司公布估价的时候 将会发生什么 呢 ?如果这个著名的科学家 被给予的 薪水 ,充分反映 出 他或她对公司的贡献 ,那么， 股票的价格不一定会改变。假设 ,相反 ,雇佣 科学家是一种积极的 净现值 交易。在这种情况下 ,FCC 公司的股票价格将会增加 ,因为 企业 可以支付科学家薪水 ,吹他的或她的真正的对公司的价值。 FCC 公司股票价格上涨的时候会发生什么呢 ?假设招聘公告是在周三早上召
16、开新闻发布会。 有效的市场内 ,FCC 公司的股份的价格 将立即 适应这种新的信息 。投资者不应该 买 周三下午和在 周 四 盈利的股票 。这将意味着 股市 花了一天的时间来实现 FCC 公司新闻稿的意义 。 有效 市场假说预测 ,对 FCC 公司 股票价格 将在 周三下午已反映所 在周三上午新闻稿中所 包含的信息。 2 理性的独立偏差 假设 FCC 公司的新闻稿并不都是那么清楚， 有多少新 的 相机很可能 被出售 吗 ?代价是什么 ?每 个 照相机 的成本是多少 ?其他相机公司能够开发出与之竞争的产品吗 ?如何继续发展 呢 ?如果这些和其他问题 ,不能 很轻松的 回答 ,这将是很难估计的净现
17、值 。 现在 可以想象 ,有这么多的问题 急需解答 ,而 许多投资者 并没有想清楚 。一些投资者可能会 认为是新产品，新概念而投资 ,并且认为 销售预测 好过产品的合理性 。 如果他们要出售股票 (也许是为了当前的消费 ),他们这么做只 会 付出 高昂的代价。如果这些个体主导市场 ,股票价格将可能上升超出市场 预测的效益 。 然而 ,由于情绪反抗 ,在一个 消极低迷 的 状态下，投资者可以很容易的反映出新的信息 。毕竟 ,商业历史告诉我们，不少投资者开始对电话，复印机，汽车，和电影的好处表示怀疑。当然， 可能 是 对这 个新的相机过渡担心 。如果 这种类型的 投资者 为 主 ,股票价格将可能上升 的效益将低于市场预测 。
