1、 1 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目： Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy 出 处： International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street N.W., Washington, DC 20431, U.S.A. 作 者： TIMOTHY JAMES BOND 原 文： Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy Abstract. Monetary policy played an important role in the Asian
2、experience with capital inflows.Central banks used monetary policy to contain the threat of overheating, but the resulting increases in interest rates attracted additional inflows. Empirical measurement of these links shows that tight monetary policy was an important source of inflows to Indonesia a
3、nd Thailand in recent years, and that the independence of monetary policy decreased during the inflow period. Key words: Capital inflows, monetary policy. I. Introduction The magnitude of private capital inflows to developing countries increased sharply in recent years. Due to the macroeconomic pres
4、sures that these inflows generate,economists have devoted substantial attention to the issue of designing an appropriate policy response. The Asian experience with capital inflows offers some important lessons in this area. This paper reviews the capital inflow episode in Asia, and focuses in more d
5、etail on the experience of two countries: Indonesia and Thailand. Monetary policy played a key role in these countries, both as a response to capital inflows, when sterilization was used to limit the expansion of monetary aggregates, and as a cause, when increases in interest rates to counter overhe
6、ating attracted additional inflows. For this reason, and because the importance of monetary policy has been underemphasized in the literature,1 the paper analyzes the relationship between monetary policy and capital flows in some detail. It concludes that the Asian experience with capital inflows il
7、lustrates the difficulty of maintaining monetary 2 independence with an exchange rate target and an open capital account. Under these conditions, monetary policy will decline in usefulness as capital mobility rises, and macroeconomic management will become more difficult.Consequently, countries shou
8、ld develop other means of responding to capital flows, such as fiscal policy or increased exchange rate flexibility. The Asian experience with capital inflows can provide valuable lessons to policymakers in other countries, for several reasons. First, capital inflows began earlier in Asia, and have
9、endured longer. In Thailand, for example, the capital inflow episode has lasted nearly a decade. Inflows to Asia showed little tendency to slow after the 1994 crisis in Mexico, in contrast to the pattern of capital flows to many Latin American countries. This experience offers valuable evidence to c
10、ountries in which capital inflows have only recently begun. Second, inflows to Asian countries have been strong Thailand has experienced average inflows of nearly 10 percent of GDP per year since 1988. The causes and effects of inflows of this magnitude are often more readily apparent. Third, faced
11、with strong capital inflows, the countries considered here fashioned strong policy responses. They adopted conventional policies, such as tightening the fiscal stance, as well as unconventional policies, such as innovative means of monetary management, measures to limit credit growth, and measures t
12、o raise the cost of short-term capital movements. Fourth, and possibly as a result of the strong policy response, Asian countries avoided some of the concerns associated with large capital inflows. In particular, the inflows had a limited impact on inflation and the real exchange rate； and most impo
13、rtantly, the inflows financed a surge in investment rather than consumption.The effect of capital inflows was not completely benign, however, as many of these countries now face higher levels of external debt, as well as concerns over the intermediation of external borrowing through the domestic fin
14、ancial system. The Asian experience demonstrates an additional, extremely important point: that in countries with pegged exchange rates, an increase in capital flows complicates monetary management. Although over a longer horizon, policymakers were concerned with the potential effects of inflows on
15、final targets such as economic activity and inflation, on a day-to-day level, they attempted to manage the economy 3 by controlling intermediate targets such as interest rates or monetary aggregates. Many countries experienced downward pressures on interest rates and upward pressures on monetary agg
16、regates as the pace of capital inflows increased, and policymakers often felt that their ability to control these key variables had declined.In this way, capital flows complicated the task of central banking. This fact illustrates an important link between monetary policy and capital flows under peg
17、ged exchange rates, familiar from standard texts on open economy macroeconomics. Capital flows constrain monetary policy because monetary policy draws capital flows. In particular, an attempt either to contract monetary policy, or to sterilize a reserve inflow, will raise interest rates and attract
18、more capital inflows.2 The paper relies on a simple model to illustrate this relationship.The model, developed over 20 years ago by Kouri and Porter (1974), provides useful insights into the causes of capital flows to countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. It can be used to quantify empiricall
19、y both the constraints that international capital mobility imposes on monetary management, and the proportion of capital inflows due to contractionary monetary policy. The paper uses the cases of Indonesia and Thailand to demonstrate the importance of these links in practice. There are important sim
20、ilarities between these two countries experiences with capital inflows. Each country, after undergoing a period of structural adjustment and economic liberalization in the mid-1980s, received a surge in capital inflows around the turn of the decade. Each country maintained a fairly open capital acco
21、unt and an exchange rate target,3 and thus had a limited number of policy instruments to respond to the surge in inflows. Despite the exchangerate regime, each country tightened monetary policy to limit the effects of capital flows, and periodically sterilized inflows of reserves； these policies wer
22、e important sources of additional inflows. Finally, each of these countries, concluding that a monetary response alone was insufficient, also relied on other policies to maintain macroeconomic control. In brief, both countries tightened fiscal policy, while Indonesia gradually increased exchange rate flexibility standard policy prescriptions in response to a rise in capital inflows. The experiences of Indonesia and
