1、本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目： Capital Flows to an Emerging Market in Turkey 出 处： International Advances in Economic Research, 2003, Volume 9, Number 3, Pages 189-195 作 者： Saziye Gazioglu 原文 ： Capital Flows to an Emerging Market in Turkey Abstract Increased gIobalization in financial markets implies that the perc
2、entage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. Speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in February 2001 led to deep economic crisis in Turkey.This article will explore various indicators of the financial crisis in Turkey based on a macro-model. The
3、 foreign share of the domestic economy is a key variable to establish the degree of vulnerability during a financial crisis. An empirical investigation shows that the percentage of shares owned by foreigners on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) has been increasing since 1995 and is currently about 5
4、0 percent of the total. Furthermore,the general index of stock market prices in 1999 was at its highest level since i995.This would imply that the general price index of the stock market is another strong indicator of an impending financial crisis. An empirical investigation of Turkish data based on
5、 a theoretical model is presented in this paper. An unexpected capital outflow would certainly cause exchange rate fluctuations, balance of payments problems, and international debt crisis. Hot money inflows boost share prices and keep the real exchange rate high. However, short-term stay of capital
6、 implies a sudden capital outflow that creates financial crisis, which results in international debt crisis. This in turn leads to a further increase in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Relatively high stock market prices may suggest an impending financial crisis. Using Turkish stoc
7、k market price data, an impending financial crisis can be statistically predicted. (JEL E60,F32, F34, F36, F40, G15) Introduction Much work has been done in the area of financial crisis. Johnson et al. 2000 created a vulnerability matrix using sets of criteria including macro indicators. Other theor
8、ies of crisis include speculative attacks Krugman et al. 1979, and self-fulfilling hypotheses Obstfelt,1995. Other works include fundamentals, the second generations model moral hazard,and self-fulfilling expectations models on liquidity. Krugman 1996, Kaminsky 1998, and Kaminsky and Schumukler 1999
9、 referred to these factors as contagions or common factors affecting all countries.Experience shows that short-term capital inflow is undertaken in pursuit of quick gains and includes or comprises speculation in the exchange rate markets. The result is increasing international debt and the possibili
10、ty of the halving of national wealth overnight, as happened in Turkey early in 2001. Most analyses are based on flow variables alone and ignore the effects of financial crisis on stock variables such as international indebtedness and wealth. Recent IMF papers by Borensztein 2000 and Lane Milesi-Ferr
11、etti 2000 underline the importance of linking theory with empirical work on real exchange rates and indebtedness. The possibility of unstable long-run equilibria based on our theoretical model is usually ignored in these studies (whereas the possibility is taken as given here). The arguments in this
12、 paper are based on a theoretical model that is different from others.The author argues that probability of future volatility is closely related to the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic stock market and the volatility of stock market prices. This paper is ordered as follow
13、s: section two presents a summary of the model. Section three is an investigation into foreign share ownership on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the forth section is a report on the empirical results. Section five concludes. Theoretical Model The model is based on Gazioglu 2001 and Gazioglu and McC
14、ausland 2001； 2002, with a profit maximizing firm and a representative domestic consumer maximizing time separable utility functions IObstfeld and Rogoff, 1995； Ramse% 1928. Following Obstfeld and Rogoff 1995, the stock market constraint is as follows: VdXd=XdVd+XdDd Equation (1) states 1 that a cha
15、nge in the proportion (Xd) of the value of domestic firms 2 that domestic individuals own (that is, shares: the value of domestic claims to the total future profits of domestic firms, Vd), XdVd, is equal to the domestic proportion of the change in the stock market valuation of these shares, XdVd plu
16、s their proportion of dividends, XdVd. The balance of payments constraint is: H= -T+H(1+/e)(1+Rf) The aggregate constraint of the stock market and net accumulation of foreign assets, -H,can only be accumulated by running a trade surplus, where H is the foreign owned share of domestic dividends minus
17、 the domestic owned share of foreign dividends and H= -T+H(1+/e)(1+Rf) is any capital gain from holding foreign money in terms of foreign goods (a simple representation can be found in Gazioglu 1996, where external balance is also equal to internal balance): In essence, therefore, the right hand sid
18、e of the constraint represents net domestic income (factor earmngs, net interest from asset holdings, and return on shares) minus consumption (private and investment), reflected by the saving (net wealth accumulation) on the left hand side. It is the combination of the stock market constraint, follo
19、wing Obstfeld and Rogoff 1995 and Net International Debt Gazioglu and McCausland, 2000； 2001； 2002. If the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic stock market increases, debt in the domestic economy increases, which is analogous to selling the family silver. It would seem the domestic economy is very sensitive to the level of foreign investment in the stock
