1、1 本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目： EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE BALANCE RELATIONSHIP: THE EXPERIENCE OF ASEAN COUNTRIES 出 处： International Trade 2003 作 者： Khim-Sen Liew， Kian-Ping Lim， Huzaimi Hussain 原 文 : Abstract This study addresses the question of whether exchange rate changes have any significant and direct impact
2、 on trade balance. By examining the trade balances between ASEAN-5 countries and Japan for the sample period from 1986 to 1999, this study found that the role of exchange rate changes in initiating changes in the trade balances has been exaggerated. As such, an alternative explanation to the observe
3、d behaviour of ASEAN-5 trade balances in the selected sample period has been postulated. In particular, we propose that trade balance is affected by real money, rather than nominal exchange rate. A mathematical framework that provides theoretical background to our proposition is presented. Our empir
4、ical data analysis suggests that the real money effect proposition could consistently explain the observed trade balances in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines during the period of study, with respect to Japan. Thus, in order to cope with trade deficits, the governments of these ASEAN
5、-5 countries might resort to policy measures focusing on the variable of real money. Keywords: Exchange rate； Trade balance； Real money； Purchasing power parity； ASEAN-5 Economies. I. INTRODUCTION Exchange rate is one of the important prices in an open economy since it affects so many business, inve
6、stment and policy decisions. Thus, it is not surprising to learn that the study of exchange rate has been one of the most important areas of economic research over the past few decades. This body of research has experienced tremendous growth, especially in the post-Bretton Woods era in which foreign
7、 exchange rate has been highly volatile after the inception of the floating exchange rate regime in 1973. 2 One of the areas of research that has drawn the attention of researchers is the exchange ratetrade balance relationship. The elasticity model of the balance of trade (Krueger, 1983) has shown
8、the existence of a theoretical relationship between exchange rate and the trade balance. Empirically, various studies have been conducted to assess the influence of exchange rate on trade balance, with the objective of providing valuable inputs to policy makers on the effectiveness of exchange rate
9、policy such as devaluation-based adjustment policies (effected through nominal exchange rate) to balance a countrys foreign trade (see, for example, Greenwood, 1984； Himarios, 1989； Rose and Yellen, 1989； Bahmani-Oskooee, 1991； Mahdavi and Sohrabian, 1993； Arize, 1994； Buluswar et al., 1996； Rahman
10、and Mustafa, 1996； Rahman et al., 1997； Wei, 1999； Baharumshah, 2001； Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001； Lal and Lowinger, 2002； Singh, 2002). In theory, nominal depreciation (appreciation) of exchange rate is assumed to change the real exchange rate (see, for instance, Himarios, 1989； Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001) an
11、d thus has a direct effect on the trade balance. Specifically, Bahmani-Oskooee (2001) noted that in an effort to gain international competitiveness and help to improve its trade balance, a country may adhere to devaluation or allow her currency to depreciate. Devaluation or depreciation increases ex
12、ports by making exports relatively cheaper, and discourage imports by making imports relatively more expensive, thus improving trade balance. However, many economists believe there is a short run phenomena dubbed the “J-curve” effect in the movement of trade balance, in which there will be an initia
13、l deterioration before a countrys trade balance eventually improves. A common explanation for this time path adjustment is based on the existence of contracts in international trade, in particular export contracts are written in domestic currency units and import contracts are written in foreign cur
14、rency units. As a result, the price effects work faster than volume effects following the devaluation or depreciation of a countrys exchange rate. This study attempts to investigate whether exchange rate changes have significant and direct impact on the trade balances of ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia
15、, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) with Japan, one of their major trading partners. However, from our plots of the exchange rate and trade balances for these ASEAN-5 countries, it seems that the role of exchange rate changes in initiating changes in the trade balances has been exag
16、gerated. These results come as no surprise because various studies have found weak statistical evidence connecting exchange rate changes and the trade balance (see for example, Greenwood, 1984； Rose and 3 Yellen, 1989； Mahdavi and Sohrabian, 1993； Buluswar et al., 1996； Rahman and Mustafa, 1996； Rah
17、man et al., 1997). As such, this study proposes an alternative explanation to the observed behaviour of ASEAN-5 trade balances in the selected sample period. In particular, it hypothesizes that trade balance is affected by real money, rather than nominal exchange rate. A mathematical framework that
18、provides theoretical background to this proposition is presented. Our empirical data analysis suggests that the real money effect proposition could consistently explain the observed trade balances in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines during the period of study, with respect to Japan.
19、 The rest of this paper is outlined as follows. Section II describes the empirical data of this study. Section III examines the exchange rate-trade balance relationship between ASEAN-5 countries and Japan. The mathematical derivation of the real money effect proposition is presented in Section IV. S
20、ection V provides empirical evidence of our proposition and the final section concludes this study. II. EMPIRICAL DATA OF STUDY This study examines the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in the context of ASEAN-5 economies with respect to Japan, one of their major trading partners.
21、 The end of period nominal exchange rates for the countries involved, namely Indonesia (IDR), Japan (JPY), Malaysia (MYR), the Philippines (PHP), Singapore (SGD) and Thailand (THB) are collected from various issues of International Financial Statistics (IMF). Our trade balance data is constructed by
22、 subtracting imports payment from exports earning, both of which are obtained from Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook (IMF), with a sample period spanning from 1986 to 1999. The choice of sample period is based on the availability of imports and exports data at the time of study. Besides, Consum
23、er Price Indices (CPI) for these countries, which are utilised to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate suggested by the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis, are collected from International Financial Statistics. In this study, nominal bilateral exchange rate is defined as the foreign price of
24、 domestic currency. For example, the JPY/MYR exchange rate refers to the unit price of Malaysia ringgit (MYR) in terms of Japanese yen (JPY). The Japanese yen-based nominal bilateral exchange rates of these ASEAN-5 economies, together with their corresponding long-term trends are plotted in Figure 1. A stylised fact depicted in these plots is that, in the period of study, the nominal exchange rates of these ASEAN-5 economies depreciate with respect to Japanese yen (JPY). This is obvious
