1、PDF外文：http:/ Multi-criteria selection of electric power plants using analytical hierarchy process Abstract This paper uses analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methodology to perform a comparison between the different electricitypower production options in Jordan. The systems which were co
2、nsidered, in addition to fossil fuel power plants, are nuclear, solar,wind, and hydro-power. Results on costtobenefit ratios show that solar, wind, end hydro-power may be the best alternatives forelectric power production. Nuclear electricity turns out to be the worst choice, followed by fossil fuel
3、 electric power. 1. Introduction Jordan is a non-oil producing Middle-Eastern country.It relies heavily on importing oil from neighboringcountries. Most of the electric power that is generatedto serve different sectors of the country is producedfrom power plants that use fossil fuel. This fuel
4、 is eithertotally imported such as petroleum hydrocarbon fuel,or partially local (only with small percentage) such asnatural gas. The 1996 electrical energy consumption inJordan reached a value of 6000 GWh. About 93% ofhis amount was produced by the National ElectricPower Company (NEPCO) which is th
5、e main electricitysupplier in the country 1. Other options or alternativesof energy sources for electric power generation must teeconsidered. These options may include nuclear, solar,wind, or hydro-electric energies. The Jordanian experiencewith electricity generation using solar and windenergy tech
6、nology has been on the small and experimentalscale. These renewable energy systems wereutilized in mostly remote areas of Jordan. They areused to generate electric power for individual applicationsuch as clinics, lighting, and educational televisionsets. The remote village of JurfEldaraweesh located
7、 inthe Jordan desert of a population of 600, is the bestexample 2. The necessary electrical energy is totallysupplied by solar and wind energy conversion systems. In this paper, oil-fired power plants in addition toother alternatives are being evaluated. The other alternativesinclude nuclear, solar,
8、 wind and hydro-power.A brief description of various power plant technologieswill be presented. Using a decision-support systemthrough a multiple criteria analysis, such as AHP, anattempt will be made to assist decision makers toevaluate the use of the above technologies which can bemost suitable fo
9、r electrical power production in Jordan. 2. Fossil-fuel electrical power plants In general, fossil fuels are non-renewable. They originatefrom the earth as a result of decomposition andchemical conversion of organic materials. They come inthree organic forms: (1) solid, e.g. coal and oil shale； (2)l
10、iquid, e.g. most petroleum products, and (3) gas, e.g.natural gas. Coal represents the largest fossil-fuel energyresource in electric power generation 3,4. Oilshale is a fossil fuel that exists in Jordan in abundance,but with unattractive physical properties. First, like alloil shales, it has a low
11、heating value due to the high ashcontent 5. Secondly, the Jordanian oil shale has sulfurcontents, ranging 46% 6. Because of low prices ofpetroleum world wide the utilization of solid fossilfuels, such as oil shale, cannot be feasible at the timebeing. Therefore, oil shale power plants can not becons
12、idered to be competitive 3. Petroleum and naturalgas are the main fuels used for the electric powergeneration in Jordan in addition to small hydro-poweredelectricity generation plants. Table 1 represents theexisting electrical power plants in Jordan 1. 3. Electricity power production using solar ene
13、rgy Since the 1970s solar energy has received the greatestattention of all renewable energy sources all over theworld. Many regard it as the solution for cleaner environmentand may be the alternative to fossil and nuclearfuels. Thus, solar energy has been the object forproduction of electrical power
14、. Many studies and experienceshave shown that solar thermal power plants areone of the most economic forms of solar electricitygeneration. Solar energy can be converted into electricityby photovoltaic cells, but this process is mostlyconvenient and suitable for small applications only.Stand alone ph
15、otovoltaic power systems were proposedfor electrification of remote areas of which they arelocated outside the electricity grid-connection supplysystem 7. On the other hand, solar energy can beconverted into thermal energy by means of solar collectorsor concentrators. A working fluid is used to conv
16、ertthe thermal energy into mechanical energy which isthen converted into electricity. Unlike photovoltaics,large amounts of electrical power can be generatedfrom such plants. The types of receivers that can beseriously considered are: (1) central receivers, (2) dispersedor distributed receivers and
17、(3) solar ponds.Like most countries of the Middle East, Jordanenjoys long periods of sunshine. The local weather hasover 300 cloudless days per year. Future technologysuggests that the Dead Sea itself can be used as 450 km2solar lake, operating a 2500 MW power plant 8. In arecent study, the potentia
18、l of using the Dead Sea as alarge natural solar pond for generation of electricity inJordan was explored 9. Kribus et al. 10 have shownnew solar power plant concept by incorporating newdevelopments of solar power optics, high performanceair receivers, and solar-to-gas turbine interface. Interms of e
19、conomical point of view, Kolb 11 foundhybrid power towers to be superior to solar-only plantswith the same field size. There is a number of solarthermal power plants in operation around the world.They are found to be one of the most economicalsystems for generating electricity 12,13. Recently, theco
20、-generation of electricity and potable water by utilizationof solar energy was carried out 14,15. Thiskind of system looks attractive in remote areas whereboth water is scares and electricity grid is not available.The system is capable of producing 30 MWe or more. 4. Electrical power production usin
21、g wind energy It is very well established that wind energy resource islarge and globally widespread. For different applications,it is clear that wind energy can be competitive inmany locations 1618. Wind energy can be used inmany applications such as water pumping 19, andwater desalination 20. It ca
22、n also be used for theelectrical power generation using wind energy conversionsystem 21. Wind power is expected to be one ofthe least expensive forms of new electrical generation inthe twenty-first century 22. With global efforts to become tough on fossil fuelrelated energy systems and to reduce the
23、 emissions ofCO2 significantly, this will most likely introduce lowercost wind systems. For example, large wind powerplants at good wind sites using emerging technologiescan deliver electricity into utility grid at low prices thatare becoming competitive with those of conventionalpower generation. W
24、ind power plants can use hundredsof wind turbines that range in size from 50 to 500kW each located in some remote areas. The plantscomputerized and control center operates similar tofossil fuel plants, except it does not have to be insight of turbines. In a recent study a model of windpower plant fo
25、r isolated location was presented 23.Increases in the prices of fuel and cost of fossil fuelplants and in relying less on non-renewable energyresources, decrease the value and cost of wind powergeneration systems significantly 24,25. There are number of sites in Jordan with potentiallyhigh wind spee
26、ds, that can be utilized for thispurpose 26,27. Habali et al. 27 have presented anevaluation of wind energy in Jordan and its applicationfor electrical power generation. A total of 11wind sites were considered covering the entire country.The three most potential sites in Jordan arefound to be RasMun
27、eef, Mafraq, and Aqaba. Theyhave wind speeds that range from 4 to 23 msthroughout 80% of the whole year. 5. Hydro-electric power plants Hydro-electric power plants can provide a basis forevaluating the potential of renewable sources of energy.When compared to other thermal power plants,they are foun
28、d to be conventional and reliable. Somecountries utilize this form of free natural energy intouseful type of electrical power. For example, 11% ofthe electric power produced in the USA was providedby hydro-electric power 4. Egypt and Turkey, countriesof this region, also utilize this type of power f
29、orgenerating electricity at low costs. A number of studies were involved in utilizing hydro-power in Jordan for the purpose of electricityproduction 28, water desalination 29,30, and bothelectricity production and water desalination 8,31.These studies, mainly, considered the linkage of Redand Dead S
30、eas with a canal to generate hydro-power.The Dead Sea is about 400 m below sea level (BSL),it is roughly 200 km to the north of the Gulf ofAqaba. It is an extension of the Red Sea. The DeadSea has no outlet； its water level is a function ofinflow and evaporation of water. For thousands ofyears the D
31、ead Sea maintained an equilibrium withthe annual inflow and evaporation of water. This resultedin a constant sea level. For example, in 1930the surface of the Dead Sea was measured at its historicalelevation of about 390 m BSL. The JordanRiver is considered to be the main tributary of theDead Sea. O
32、ver the years due to increase in populationand agricultural development, water was divertedfor irrigation in the Jordan Valley and neighboringcountries. Therefore, its elevation was forced to drop,drastically； in 1993 it was 408 m BSL. To halt thistrend, it will be necessary to introduce a substanti
33、alamount of new water to the sea. Sea water from theRed Sea can be used as a source of wafer needed fordiversion into the Dead Sea. This diversion can beused to either maintain the sea at its current leveland thus stop its dropping, or even to bring it backto its historical level. The power obtained
