1、外文翻译之一 Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform 作者： Denvil Duncan&Klara Sabirianova Peter 国籍： Germany 出处： IZA Discussion Paper No. 4257,June 2009 原文正文： Abstract: We exploit the exogenous change in marginal tax rates created by the Russian flat tax reform of 2001
2、to identify the effect of taxes on labor supply of males and females.We apply the weighted difference-in-difference regression approach and instrumental variables to the labor supply function estimated on individual panel data.The mean regression results indicate that the tax reform led to a statist
3、ically significant increase in male hours of work but had no effecton that of females.However, we find a positive response to tax changes at both tails of the female hour distribution.We also find that the reform increased the probability of finding a job among both males and females.Despite signifi
4、cant variation in individual responses,the aggregate labor supply elasticities are trivial and suggest that reform-induced changes in labor supply were an unlikely explanation for the amplified personal income tax revenues that followed the reform. Keywords: labor supply； personal income tax；flat ta
5、x； labor supply elasticity； weighted difference-in-difference regression approach；employment participation； Russia 1. Introduction Although the classical flat taxas described by Hall and Rabushka (2007)has not beenimplemented in any country to date,a number of countries have chosen recently to tax i
6、ndividualincome at flat rates.As of January 1, 2009,the flat personal income tax(PIT)rate schedule wasimplemented by 24 countries,20 of which are formerly centrally-planned economies of Centraland Eastern Europe and Eurasia. Lower compliance cost and lower tax rates couldpotentially reduce evasion,i
7、ncome shifting,and other avoidance activities.A flat tax reform isalso motivated by the desire to stimulate the economy via higher work effort and investment(Hall and Rabushka, 2007). The most popular of these flat tax reforms is the flat PIT rate that came into effect onJanuary 1st 2001 in Russia.M
8、uch of the attention received by the Russian reform was due to thedramatic increase in Russias PIT revenue following the reform.According to Ivanova,Keen,and Klemm (hereafter IKK 2005),real PIT revenue increased by 26 percent in 2001 andcontinued to grow in subsequent years.From a theoretical perspe
9、ctive, reduce the tax rate means that the tax revenue to reduce,then the tax reformcouldexpand the tax base and produce strong revenue performance.The conclusion that the flat rate expanded the tax base sufficiently to explain the revenuegrowth has been greeted with much skepticism(Gaddy and Gale 20
10、05 and IKK 2005).IKK(2005),For example,find no evidence that the reform is responsible for the increase in PITrevenue.They also argue that while compliance did increase as a result of the reform, it is notclear whether the lower PIT rate or stricter enforcement should be given the credit. A moredefi
11、nite conclusion is reached by Gorodnichenko,Martinez-Vazquez,andSabirianova Peter(hereafter GMP 2009)who show that a significant proportion of the increased compliance is dueto the lower PIT rate.Besides PIT revenue collections and compliance,the Russian reform hasbeen used to estimate the effect of
12、 tax changes on gross declared income (IKK find a negativeeffect) and net of tax reported earnings (Martinez-Vazquez et al (2006) find a positive effect).Both IKK (2005) and GMP (2009) also examine the real side effects of the reform and find littleor noresponse.While the existing evidence has been
13、solid on the compliance and reportingeffects of the reform,we believe there is more to be done on the real side responses. The purpose of this study is to examine,in a careful and methodological manner,theeffect of the Russian tax reform on several dimensions of labor supply,including hours of work,
14、employment participation,and multiple job holding.Two alternative strategies are used to deal with the endogeneity of wages.Thefirst approach estimates a reduced form labor supply equation derived from a simultaneoussystem of labor supply and demand while the second relies on labor demand shifters a
15、sinstruments for wages.Ourestimates show that aggregate results hide important variation acrossindividual groups,especially by gender. Specifically,we find that the reform had a positive andstatistically significant effect on male labor supply； males increased their monthly labor hoursactual and usu
16、al by approximately 46% following the reform with an implied elasticity ofapproximately 0.10.15.Though quite small,these estimates are within the ball park of malelabor supply elasticities(Meghir and Phillips 2008).At the same time,we do not find thatfemales average hours of workactual or usualrespo
17、nded to the tax reform.However,thezero response does not stay constant over the hour distribution.In fact,there is evidence of apositive response to lower tax rates at the bottom and very top of the female distribution ofhours.Despite significant variation in individual responses,the aggregate respo
18、nse confirms thatthe labor supply component of the tax base did not contribute to the increased PIT revenue. Apart from allowing us to quantify the role played by the labor supply component of thetax base in explaining the increase in PIT revenue,the estimated labor supply elasticities withrespect t
19、o tax rates are useful for other purposes.Knowledge of the labor supply response iscritical for policies such as means tested welfare benefits that depend on how much labor supplyresponds to incentives.Labor supply estimates also play an important role in generalequilibrium macroeconomic analyses th
20、at seek to understand how policiesnot necessarily taxesaffect economic aggregates.Additionally, most labor supply results exist for developedcountries with mature labor markets.Since these results may not apply to transition countrieswhose labor markets are yet to reach full maturity,direct estimate
21、s of the labor supply responsefor the largest transition economyshould be informative to the economics profession.A betterunderstanding of the reforms impact on the labor supply component of the tax base should alsoprove useful to other countries trying to emulate the Russian tax reform. In sum,from the theoretical standpoint,the effect of the Russian flat tax reform on laborsupply remains ambiguous.Determining this effect becomes anempirical question and facesserious identificationproblem.
