1、 毕业 论文外文资料翻译 题 目 西部农村新型农村养老保险参 保 意 愿的影 响 因素研究 以青海省乐都县八里桥村为例 学 院 政治与公共管理 学院 专 业 劳动与社会保障 班 级 社保 0803 班 学 生 赵继平 学 号 220080706103 指导教师 刘艳丽 二一 二 年 三 月 二十五 日 济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译 - 1 - This section of articles selected from A Theory of the Consumption Function,P26-30.The writer is Friedman Milton. The assumptio
2、ns that the first two correlations between the permanent and transitory components of income and of consumption are zero seem very mild and highly plausible. Indeed, by themselves, they have little substantive content and can almost be as simply completing or translating the definitions of transitor
3、y and permanent components； the qualitative notion that the transitory component is intended to embody is of an accidental and transient addition to or subtraction from income, which is almost equivalent to saying an addition or subtraction that is not correlated with the rest of income. The merging
4、 of errors of measurement with transitory components contributes further to the plausibility that these correlations are zero. For a group of individuals, it is plausible to suppose that the absolute size of the transitory component varies with the size of the permanent component: that a given rando
5、m event produces the same percentage rather than the same absolute increase or decrease in the incomes of units with different permanent components. This may make more convenient an alternative definition of transitory com- ponent that is suggested below； it is not, however, inconsistent with zero c
6、orrelation. Zero correlation implies only that the average transitory component the algebraic average in which positive and negative. components offset one another is the same for all values of the permanent component. For example, suppose that the transitory component is equally likely to be plus o
7、r minus 10 percent of the permanent component. The average transitory component is then zero for all values of the permanent component, although the average absolute value, which disregards the sign of the components, is directly proportional to the permanent component. The plausibility of taking ou
8、r definition of transitory components to imply a zero correlation for a group of consumer units depends somewhat on the criteria determining membership in the group. The clearest example is a classification of-units by the size of their measured income. For each such group, the correlation between p
9、ermanent and transitory components is necessarily negative, since with a common measured income the permanent component can be relatively high only if the transitory component is relatively low, and conversely. 济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译 - 2 - The assumption that the third correlation in (3.3) between the trans
10、itory components of income and consumption is zero is a much stronger assumption. It is primarily this assumption that introduces important substantive content into the hypothesis and makes it susceptible of contradiction by a wide range of phenomena capable of being observed. The ultimate test of i
11、ts acceptability is of course whether such phenomena are in fact observed, and most of what follows is devoted to this question. It is hardly worth proceeding to such more refined tests, however, unless the assumption can pass or at least not fail miserably the much cruder test of consistency with c
12、asual observation of ones self and ones neighbors, so some comments on the intuitive plausibility of the assumption are not out of order. The common notion that savings, or at least certain components of savings, are a residual speaks strongly for the plausibility of the assumption. For this notion
13、implies that consumption is determined by rather long-term considerations, so that any transitory changes in income lead primarily to additions to assets or to the use of previously accumulated balances rather than to corresponding changes in consumption. Yet from another point of view, the assumpti
14、on seems highly implausible. Will not a man who receives an unexpected windfall use at least some part of it in riotous living, i.e. in consumption expenditures? Would he be likely to add the whole of it to his wealth? The answer to these questions depends greatly on bow consumption is defined. The
15、offhand affirmative answer reflects in large measure,I believe, an implicit definition of consumption in terms of purchases, including durable goods, rather than in terms of the value of services. If the latter definition is adopted, as seems highly desirable in applying the hypothesis to empirical
16、data though unfortunately I have been able to do so to only a limited extent much that one classifies off hand as consumption is reclassified as savings. Is not the windfall likely to be used for the purchase of durable goods? Or, to put it differently, is not the timing of the replacement of durabl
17、e goods and of additions to the stock of such goods likely to some extent to be adjusted so as to coincide with windfalls? Two other consideration argue for the plausibility of the assumption that transitory components of income and consumption are uncorrelated.First, the above identification of a windfall with transitory income is not precise. Suppose, for example, inheritances are included .in a particular concept of measured income. Consider a consumer unit whose receipts remain unchanged over a succession of time periods except that it receives an inheritance in the final period. If the
