1、 1 SERVICES: THE CASE OF POSTAL VERSUS EXPRESS DELIVERY SERVICES Michael G. Plummer 1 Introduction In developed countries, services continue to constitute by far the largest share of national economies. For example, in the EU and the United States, approximately seventy and eighty percent, respectiv
2、ely, of the economy falls under the general rubric of services. Services have also increased in importance in trade: in the year 2000, the share of services in total exports came to approximately 28 percent in the United States and 22 percent in the EU, with an average for the entire OECD coming to
3、about 19 percent. The same trend is observable in developing countries. During the development process, it is typical that: (1) agriculture falls as a percentage of GDP； (2) manufacturing first rises and then falls as the economy matures； but (3) services continue to grow throughout the development
4、process. As a percentage of trade, services exports of developing countries have risen from nine percent in 1980 (approximately half the share of developed countries) to about eighteen percent in 2000, on a par with that of the developed countries. Given the complicated and diverse nature of trade i
5、n services, liberalization at the global level can be more delicate and in many ways more difficult than trade in goods. Services can be high tech or low tech； inputs and/or final products； privately-provided or publicly-provided； and closely related to other areas, such as foreign direct investment
6、 (“FDI”). Many services areas, however, still include government involvement, and state prerogatives in certain areas are recognized by the GATS. Moreover, trade in goods tends to be separate from FDI, though clearly there exist indirect links between trade and FDI. In the area of services, however,
7、 trade in services can be intricately linked to FDI； in some sectors, trade in services is impossible without FDI. In this chapter, we will focus on the need for services liberalization in the global economy, with a focus on developing countries. Moreover, we will use the process and complications a
8、ssociated with the liberalization of express delivery services as a case study. This area is particularly interesting because: (a) it is an industry that has become 2 highly international； (b) it has become an important input to a variety of emerging industries and a key ingredient in the competitiv
9、eness of firms and countries； (c) liberalization runs up against various competition policy issues, especially since it potentially affects private and public services5； and (d) it is exactly the type of industry where greater international access created through global agreements can produce major
10、benefits to developed and developing countries alike. 2 Services Liberalization and the Stakes for Economic Development A series of multilateral negotiations under the auspices of the GATT/WTO have been very successful in bringing down barriers to trade in manufactured goods. Developing country tari
11、ffs are, in general, much higher than in the developed world, but a large majority of developing countries has liberalized substantially trade in manufactures over the past fifteen years. In fact, most of the benefits that would accrue to global free trade would go to developing countries, according
12、 to various computational general equilibrium models that have been used to estimate such effects. The developing world is a different story. Agriculture continues to play an important role in the economy in general and in trade in particular in the least-developed countries and in many middle-incom
13、e countries. In order to be successful, the Doha Round will have to include at least some agricultural liberalization if the developing countries are going to agree to any accord. Still, as the development process unfolds, manufactures and, especially, services will become increasingly important. As
14、 noted above, services have been growing rapidly in importance and already constitute eighteen percent of developing-country exports. An association between rapid real economic growth and rapid growth in services trade does not mean that the latter caused the former. Such estimation is much more com
15、plicated； indeed, there exists a chicken-and-egg simultaneity problem here. However, regardless of which causes which, the development of the services sector is clearly an important part of the development process. The case for economic reform and liberalization is just too strong. Countries that ha
16、ve sustained economic liberalization have prospered； the ones that have not prospered generally do not have outward-oriented policies to blame but rather other economic-contextual problems. It is hard to promote growthlet alone long-term developmentin an atmosphere of hyper-inflation or civil war. C
17、hina has used economic reform to transform the worlds most populous country from a least-developed, autarkic economy into an outward-oriented economic powerhouse； Vietnams reforms over the past fifteen years have cut poverty rates from one-half 3 to one-fifth of the population. However, the process
18、of economic liberalization in developing countries has generally left the services sector for last. 3 The Case for Separating Postal from Express Delivery Services in GATS Express delivery services constitute an interesting case study in service-sector liberalization. Their importance in the day-to-
19、day activities of firms has increased substantially over the past fifteen years, as evidenced by rapid growth in the industry. Indeed, express delivery services have now become an essential “ infrastructure” to doing business for many companies, as well as being an increasingly important service for
20、 individuals. Moreover, express delivery services are particularly necessary for multinationals and, hence, easy access to markets by express delivery providers is important in attracting FDI inflows, particularly in developing countries. A. The General Problem This is where the difficulty lies: exp
21、ress delivery services are often considered a competitor to postal-service providers, which are almost invariably state-owned. Hence, liberalization in this area has been tricky, constrained by competing interests from bothdeveloped and developing countries and based on a misunderstanding of the mar
22、ket in which basic postal services are confused with express delivery services (we argue below that they are related but distinct). It will be argued in this chapter that existing realities emphasize the need to separate express delivery services from postal activities. Express delivery services nee
23、d to be thoroughly differentiated from traditional postal services, both because of the clear substantive differences between the two and the defined purview of GATS. Failure to do so will lead to mixing apples and oranges to the detriment of member states, be they developed or developing countries.
24、 It could also thwart progress in Doha Agenda negotiations. B. Current Classifications Express delivery services are currently classified by theWTOServices Classification List (W/120), under both “postal” and “courier” services. The only distinction between postal and courier services is that the fo
25、rmer refer to public-sector offered services, whereas the latter are private. Hence, it has to do with ownership rather than product, which is unusual in the area of international trade. This type of classification leads to a great deal of confusion of the issues, as well as complications regarding competition policy. The US Postal Service is an independent government organization that essentially has a monopoly on delivery of letters and other activities. In the United States, like other countries,
