1、中文3633字，2025单词本科毕业论文（设计） 外 文 翻 译 原文： Low carbon economy This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for EnergyEconomyEnvironment Model at the Global
2、level. The E3MG, with combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology sub Model, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations
3、and the whole economy. The ETM sub model uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO2 reducti
4、on by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario, with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic politi
5、cal frame work for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment. Climate chan
6、ge, as a result of rising greenhouse gas emissions, threatens the stability of the worlds climate, economy and population. The causes and consequences of climate change are global, and while national governments can and should take action, the ultimate solution must be a collective global effort. Th
7、e latest scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) has further strengthened the evidence base that it is very likely that anthropogenic GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century. A major recent report on t
8、he economics of global climate change (Stern, 2006) supports the position that the benefits of stringent climate mitigation action outweighed the costs and risks of delayed action. Although there is a global consideration of the climate change effects, individual countries have undertaken different
9、steps in climate change mitigation, which is obvious given the extended negotiations towards the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. The EU and individual Member States have undertaken several commitments and directed several policies towards the reduction of their emissions. UK has been selected fo
10、r this analysis as there is political will within the country, as described below from the commitments to tackle climate change. But this commitment can be examined in the context of negotiations at international level, such as the recent commitment of G8 to reduce their emissions by 80% by 2050. &n
11、bsp;Climate change mitigation and energy security are the UKs core energy policy goals (BERR, 2007). In addition, the decline in domestic reserves and production of UK oil and natural gas, combined with increasing geopolitical instabilities in key gas and oil production and transmission countries ha
12、ve highlighted the need for a secure and resilient UK energy system. Other UK energy policy goals are reductions in vulnerable consumers exposure to high energy prices and a continued emphasis on open and competitive energy markets. The UK set itself a groundbreaking climate change mitigation policy
13、 with the publication of a long-term national CO2 reduction target of 60% by 2050(DTI, 2003). This target was established in response to the climate challenge set out by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP, 2000). Climate change mitigation targets were reaffirmed in light of compet
14、ing energy security issues via the 2007 Energy White paper (BERR, 2007). The 60% UK CO2 reductions target is being established in the UK legislative process through the Climate Change Bill as the minimum CO2 reduction target required by 2050 (DEFRA, 2008). This longer term target has been further an
15、alyzed by the new regulatory Committee on Climate Change (CCC, 2008), in light of new evidence concerning global stabilization targets (IPCC, 2007). This has led to the proposal for an 80% reduction target for greenhouse gases by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This target has been adopted by the Brow
16、n Administration and the Energy and Climate Change Secretary of State Ed Miliband, becoming a law through the Climate Change Act (DECC, 2008). Additionally, the UK has been a leading proponent of global long-term CO2 target setting within the G8, as the causes and consequences of climate change are
17、global, and while national governments can and should take action, the ultimate solution must be a collective global effort. The G8 dialogue resulted in agreement at the 2009 G8 Italian summit for a robust response to climate change including the adoption of the goal to achieve at least 80% reductio
18、n of their emissions by 2050, and aiming to reach an agreement of a 50% reduction in global emissions with other countries. The implementation of three deep CO2 reduction targets (40%, 60% and 80%) for the G8 is examined using the macro-econometric E3MG model. Results are reported for the UK, which
19、is selected as there is a political will to implement such reductions. These targets, examined within the UK Energy Research Centers 2050 project (UKERC, 2050), are met through the implementation of a portfolio of policies in contrast to the neoclassical approach, where the targets are imposed and t
20、he marginal abatement cost for meeting those targets is estimated. The paper contributes by adopting a novel hybrid approach integrating simulation models of the economic system and energy technologies and therefore providing an alternative approach to the traditional economic equilibrium modeling.
21、Moreover the paper aims to provide evidence that there exist pathways for meeting deep reduction targets and also helping the economy to grow. The need for such evidence has been noted by the IPCC in its assessment of the literature on stringent mitigation targets. Such evidence can inform the inter
22、national negotiations for a post-Kyoto global agreement. Long-term forecast of the economy and of the energy system expansion is subject to uncertainties on fossil fuel resources, prices, economic and technical characteristics of new technologies, behavioral change, political framework and regulatory environment. But the modeling approach implemented to simulate the energy system and the interaction with the global economy is crucial for the results.
