1、附录 1 英语翻译 FINANCIAL EVALUATION OF ROAD PROJECTS UNDER BOT SCHEME IN DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES ABSTRACT The past decade has witnessed many developing countries opening up their economy resulting in greater private sector participation in road infrastructure projects. These countries traditionally followed
2、economic evaluation for the project appraisal. The economic evaluation includes intangible costs and benefits of the project which do not appear in cash flow statement. Hence the economic evaluation cannot indicate the financial performance of a project. Therefore, financial evaluation is important
3、in the context of privatization and commercialization of road projects under BOT scheme. Even though such approaches are very common in developed countries, the financing methods, tax rates and accounting techniques are quite different in developing countries. Therefore, to examine the financial per
4、formance of the project and to determine the risks involved, sound financial model are necessary. This paper presents a simulation based financial model for BOT projects. The model takes the length of road, cost of construction volume of traffic, mode wise toll rates and other project specific detai
5、ls as input, performs financial evaluation, and calculates IRR and NPV for project and equity separately. In addition, the model also performs sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis on critical project parameters. A case study of a 40 km road expansion project from Pune (India) has been taken to
6、 demonstrate the working of the simulation model. The model gave financially sound project and equity IRR. The sensitivity analysis showed volume of traffic and toll rates as the most sensitive parameters to financial performance for the given project. INTRODUCTION Studies show that transport genera
7、tes growth by facilitating trade, both nationally and internationally, and by increasing access to health and education facilities as well as local and national amenities. At the macroeconomic level, cross-country studies have confirmed that investment in transport raises growth by increasing the so
8、cial return to private investment. On the other hand, at the microeconomic level, transport improvements directly lower agricultural input prices and hence production costs, increase access to markets and hence diversification of outputs, and indirectly facilitate the development of the nonagricultu
9、ral rural economy1. The importance of transport does not diminish as countries industrialize. International trade in merchandise, and by implication the movement of goods, grew on average throughout the world by 4.9% per annum between 1980 and 19922. Until the 1980s, transport infrastructure in deve
10、loping countries was primarily provided by the public sector, for all modes of transportation. In transport service provision, railways were usually a public sector monopoly； while the air and maritime transport, were also usually in the public sector. In contrast, in trucking, bus and inland waterw
11、ay transport the private sector was predominant3. Since the amount of resources, going into the transportation projects is very high； these projects need to be evaluated in comparison with other infrastructure projects as well as among themselves. The whole process of project evaluation is known as
12、project appraisal. One of the important parts, of project appraisal report is the economic evaluation. The economic analysis compares alternatives, which, helps planners choose the best way to accomplish their objectives4. The most widely accepted parameters describing the economic performance of th
13、e project are Benefit-Cost ratio and Net Present Value5. However, engineering-economic analysis is an advanced tool developed by World Bank keeping in consideration the factors that are relevant but not captured in benefit-cost ratio6. Since commercialization of transport projects is being done, the
14、 financial evaluation is also an important aspect of appraisal report. Financial Evaluation in Context of Developing Countries The transport infrastructure projects forms the basis of countrys economic growth and hence government needs to exercise control over them, but the investment requirements t
15、o fulfill the demand is far too large compared to what governments could provide. Due to this, the transportation sector had seen commercialization since last few decades. Since, the incentive for private players to step into the road sector is the return on investment； the financial analysis become
16、s extremely important. The financial analysis over the life of the project enables the developer to measure the risk on returns and provides an insight into the financial viability of the project. The analysis of projects is necessarily based on uncertain future events and involves implicit or expli
17、cit probability judgments. There is considerable uncertainty in the capital cost estimates. It is not unusual that road designs, on which the cost estimates are based, may be changed during construction. This necessitates sensitivity or switching value analysis to minimize risk7. The risk analysis gives critical variables and assesses how likely deviations are, and identifies the factors that are likely to create the greatest risks for the project. In developed nations, the models to evaluate the financial performance of
