1、外文翻译 As one of the important subjects of project management originated the First World War, and now it has been becoming more and more systematic and professional. In China the systematic project risk management framework was developed by the end of last century, but the practical application of pro
2、ject risk management still needs further improvement. With above background, this thesis focused on the medium or large real estate project, research project character, project management, typical Chinese construction project process, risk management, and project risk management. The first chapter b
3、riefed the current international and domestic study status of the subject, thesis purpose, and thesis scope, which are risk and its countermeasures research for the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. The second chapter briefed the concept and character of real estate projec
4、t, risk of project, and project risk management, which is the theoretical foundation of further risk management study for the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. Chapter3,4 and 5 are the project risk management practice on the implementation phase of medium or large real est
5、ate project. Chapter 3 is for project engineering risk management, which introduced the concept, purpode, and principle of project engineering at the beginning, and then analyzed the engineering objective, including schedule, cost, and quality, at last it identified and analyzed the project engineer
6、ing risks and provided design change procedure and design company selection procedure as the risk response. Chapter 4 detailed the concept, principle, objective and key roles of project procurement, identified and assessed the project procurement risk, and also provided contractor selection procedur
7、e, vendor selection procedure, examples of procurement plans to response and monitor project risk. Chapter 5 firstly introduced the construction concept, character, process and project construction objectives, including quality objective, schedule objective, and safety objective, and then identified
8、 and assessed construction quality risk, schedule risk, cost risk and safety risk, The postscript of this thesis briefed the dynamic project risk management concept, restriction and limitation of this thesis, and opportunities for further research. Totally there are 14 appendixes attached after the
9、thesis. These appendixes could be used as guidance and reference of risk management for real estate project. They are provided to be very useful in term of risk management for real estate project implementation phases. Project risk management as a procedure of optimism and decision, in which informa
10、tion will come out gradually in the multistage construction. The key to the risk management is how to select the risk response plan. Directed by the system theory and combined the theory of option pricing and project risk management, this paper adopts criterion method to analyze the management and a
11、ctivity in the stage of engineering project implement on the base of comparison to relative documents. This paper emphatically argues the choice of response plans under the condition of risks according to the established analysis frame. These forecasts are hypotheses abstract form the similar projec
12、t performed before, whether they are actual or not will hugely affect the success of project The implement stage means project period from the location to product whose target is transform the plan to real and mark the aims. The implement stage occupies the most period of project, has huge work, con
13、sume the most resource. What is worth to mind is that the implement stage is process not only to form the real proprirty but also product information, for example, the knowledge of field status and the capability of contractor can only be obtained form implement. So in order to mark the target, the
14、manager must test the hypotheses and use the new information assess the status of influence element, choose the best response plan according to the condition. This paper has value in instructing the project investor/manager in how to establish a risk management configuration and making decision unde
15、r risk condition in the implement stage of construction project. This thesis begins with the knowledge system of project management, analyses the whole course of risk management and sets forth the method and program of project risk identification, risk appraisement and risk monitoring in project min
16、utely. Finally, It shows a risk case of building project focal point for the investment decision of early stage with qualitative and quantitative analysis. Chapter 1 Discuss the important concept, method and knowledge system of project risk management, such as the definition of project, the knowledg
17、e system of project management PMBOKX the intension of risk, the content of risk management and so on ,carry out the risk analysis of building project emphatically. Chapter 2 Mainly introduce the tool and technology of project risk identification, such as checking table, the rules of systems analysi
18、s(WBS), the method of SWOT technology. Thinking of the demerit for every tool, hence author emphasize that we should appraise the gained information resource synthetically. Chapter 3 Explain how to go on the estimation and assessment of project risk, put forward the tool and technology of project ri
19、sk analysis (as AHP, probability and sensitivity analysis ). When analyzing project risk quantitatively, first we should have definite warranty, do not surmise risk without foundation； Secondly, distinguish confirmed project from unconfirmed project in quantitative analysis. When using two important
20、 tools of quantitative risk analysis probability and sensitivity analysis, one side is to estimate the probability of risk variable exactly； the other side is to judge and analyze the guidelines of probability analysis truly, as square margin, expected figure, disperse modulus. Through quantifying r
21、isk, it can strengthen our sense of risk management. Chapter 4 Elaborate the basic method of monitoring project risk. In order to carry into execution monitoring project risk, it is essential to establish perfect replying risk plan. The main steps is: lessening risk, take precautions against risk (a
22、s project method, instructing method, program method), conveying risk selling, inviting public bidding, the contract of absolving obligation, insurance and guarantee), avoidance, leave behind and measure in support. Chapter 5 A risk management example. First, analyze the various possible existent ri
23、sk factors of this project systematically. Secondly, study its sensitivity factor thorough quantifying assessment risk for the project, as well as establishing and putting in practice a plan in order to control the negative influence in minimum level. The building has total 130500 square in architec
24、tural area, superior geographical location and tremendously potential value, its overall investment is 4.26 hundreds million. This chapter first studies the market from place environment all around traffic and market requirement, then analyzes systematically financing risk and organic risk of joint
25、venture. On the basis of foregoing analysis, it establishes some parameter of risk quantifying analysis, calculates its selling revenue running expense and cash flow form, uses sensitivity analysis to gain best sensitivity factor. As the uncertain essence of risk, it is extremely important to analyz
26、e probability factor of the project. So we confirm the probability form of every variable, then calculate present value of each possible event according to different constitutes of risk variable； and sort all possible events according to their present values from small to big, calculate accumulative
27、 probability, square margin and disperse modulus, thus analyze the risk of project quantitatively, provide quantitative support for supervisor when they will make a decision. Comparing with international advanced level, our country has great gap on the link of how to apply theory of project risk man
28、agement to practice of project management, especially short of system research in project risk management. On the basis International project contracting is rather a complex project in the cooperation of international economy and technology, and the implementing of the projects will be influenced by
29、 political, economy and social situations Firstly, this paper systemically analyzed the market situation of the international project contracting, and concretely analyzed the market structure in Asia, America, Africa and Europe. It concluded the trend of the development of the international contract
30、ing market； projects are becoming large-scale and complex and the contracting pattern is diversified, and the management of the international project contracting is standardized. Secondly, this paper analyzed the development status and characteristic of the international project contracting in our c
31、ountry. Although the internationalization tendency of our countrys international project contracting firm is preferable, there is large gap in the whole strength when compared with firms from the developed countries, and also there are limitations in the distributing of the projects in different reg
32、ions and industries. Thirdly, this paper summarized the technique of international project contracting risk identification, estimate and appraise in our country. Put forward to finance and non-finance risk treating means, and apply the energy release theory to international project contracting risk
33、management, and research the dominating risk in the bid phase and construction and build the energy release model of each phrase. In the cases of Kun River Hydroelectric Station Project in Vietnam and Aromatic Plant Shali Irrigation Project in Nepal, this paper put forward to the technique of the in
34、ternational project contracting risk identification, estimation, appraise and reply in dealing with the project risk. Finally, in the risk estimation and risk appraise, this paper paid attention to evaluate the losing caused by the risk exactly； in the risk reply ,give attention to two aspects of cost and return, look after the economic and logical risk reply measure, in order to make the project risk least, the operating of companies most efficiently and the return highest
