1、内蒙古工业大学本科毕业论文 摘 要 交通与经济的发展是紧密相连，相互促进的。然而，经济的发展也引起了许多交通问题的出现，成为人们面临的非常棘手的问题。如： 城市交通拥堵 、空气污染，噪声污染等 问题日益严重 。 城市居民 的 出行 受到很大程度的制约， 造成巨大的经济损失 ，需要合理的交通规划才能从根本上解决问题。然而 城市交通规划的前提是必须有切合实际的城市交通需求预测 ， 高质量的预测是交通规划的重要依据，模型 预测的精确性决定着我们是否能进行合理的交通规划， 乃至于影响 人们的生活及 整个城市未来 的 经济发展。如何进行 准确、合理的 交通需求预测，是中国大多数 城 市共同面临的 问 题
2、。 当前我国正处于提高改善城市道路网络的关键时段，合理的进行土地资源的利用，努力做到资源的高效利用，开展符合中国实际情况的交通需求预测模型研究的任务迫在眉睫。 内容上，本文首先分析了论文的研究背景，介绍了论文研究的目的意义及研究思路，对城市客运交通需求预测模型的国内外的发展现状、相关理论以及预测模型存在的不足进行了相关的概述，在有充足理论基础的前提下，以唐山市为例，对唐山市的公共交通现状进行了分析，统计了唐山市近 21 年的客运量数据，并对其进行了分析以及未来几年变化趋势的预测。再分别运用移动平均 法、指数平滑法、弹性系数法、及回归分析预测四种方法进行了计算。对比分析各种模型的预测情况，如预测
3、的准确性、适用条件、优点、缺点等。然后选择其中最适合唐山市客运量预测的模型，对其未来几年的客运量进行预测。最后针对预测的重要性，结合呼和浩特市的交通现状，提出了几点改善呼和浩特市客运环境的方法。 关键词 :唐山市；城市客运； 交通需求预测模型 内蒙古工业大学本科毕业论文 Abstract The development of transportation and economy are closely linked, promote each other. However, economic development has caused many traffic problems, has b
4、ecome a very difficult problem people face. Such as: city traffic congestion, air pollution, noise pollution and other serious problems. City residents travel are restricted to a great extent, causing huge economic losses, need reasonable traffic planning can fundamentally solve the problem. However
5、, the premise of city traffic planning is a city traffic demand must have practical prediction, prediction of high quality is an important basis for transportation planning, the accuracy of model prediction determines whether we can reasonable traffic planning, as well as the impact on peoples life
6、and the whole city economy development in the future. How to accurately, reasonable traffic demand forecast, is the most common problems of Chinese city. Now our country is in the key period of time to improve the city to improve the road network, reasonable use of land resources, and strive to achi
7、eve efficient utilization of resources, in line with Chinas actual situation of the traffic demand forecast model research task imminent. In content, this paper first analyzes the research background of this thesis, introduces the meaning and purpose of the research study, the overview of the city p
8、assenger traffic demands forecasting problems, development status of domestic and foreign theories and prediction model, based on sufficient theoretical basis, taking Tangshan City as an example, analyzed public traffic actuality of Tangshan City, statistics Tangshan City nearly 21 years of passenge
9、r volume data, and carries on the forecast analysis and in the next few years trend. Then using the moving average method, exponential smoothing method, elastic coefficient method, and the regression analysis to predict the four methods calculate. Comparative analysis of prediction of various models
10、, such as prediction accuracy, applicable conditions, advantages, disadvantages. Then choose the most suitable for Tangshan City passenger traffic volume prediction model, predict the future several years of passenger traffic. Finally, the importance of combination prediction, traffic situation of Hohhot City, puts
